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| Thai farmers working in the fields. (Source: thaiger) |
Thailand's rice output is expected to fall by 871,000 tonnes, or 3.27%, to 25.8 million tonnes in the 2023-24 harvest season, mainly due to the El Nino weather phenomenon, according to the latest forecast from the Office of Agricultural Economics under the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives.
Thailand’s rice planting area in the 2023-24 crop year is estimated at 62.4 million rai (9.98 million hectares), down 602,000 rai, or 0.96 percent, from the previous year, said Tantita Bunyamaneekul, deputy secretary-general of the Department of Agricultural Economics. The decrease in planting area is due to changes in weather conditions, resulting in delayed rainfall.
According to the Meteorological Department, this year’s rainfall is expected to be lower than last year. From mid-June to mid-July this year, the lack of rainfall caused a shortage of irrigation water for agriculture, especially in dry areas. This led to some farmers abandoning their fields while others were only able to grow one rice crop.
Yields per hectare have also declined due to low rainfall. There is also a risk of disease and pest infestation, leading to a decline in national rice production.
The report also said rice prices have steadily increased for Thai hom mali fragrant rice, glutinous rice and 15% moisture rice since the beginning of 2022.
During the January-September 2023 period, Thailand's average hom mali rice price was around 14,226 baht/ton, up 13.3% year-on-year; 15% moisture rice averaged 10,499 baht/ton, up 20.6%; and glutinous rice averaged 11,657 baht/ton, up 27.7%.
Thai rice exports in the January-July 2023 period increased in both volume and value compared to the same period in 2022. During this period, rice exports reached 2.54 million tons, up 30.2% year-on-year, with an export value of 40.8 billion baht, up 51.8%. Glutinous rice exports also increased, especially in export value, reaching 3.34 billion baht, up 14.1% year-on-year.
Ms Tantita attributed the rise in domestic rice prices mainly to growing concerns that the El Nino weather phenomenon could negatively impact rice production. In addition, reduced rice production in China, combined with export restrictions from India, the world's largest exporter, have created opportunities for Thailand to increase rice exports.
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