US President-elect Donald Trump (Photo: AFP). With former President Donald Trump's strong statements about China during his re-election campaign, along with the tensions in US-China relations during his first term, Mr. Trump's return to the White House is expected to be a major, heavy and complicated challenge for bilateral relations in the next 4 years. US-China relations under Mr. Trump Under President Joe Biden, the US and China have made efforts to control and stabilize relations after a period of tension under Mr. Trump. The Biden administration has pursued a China policy of "responsible competition", with three pillars: maintaining high-level dialogue (culminating in a meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November 2023), seeking cooperation in areas of mutual benefit, and managing disagreements in a controlled manner, thereby maintaining pressure on Beijing on key issues while seeking cooperation in possible areas such as climate change and global health. However, disagreements still exist in many areas from trade, technology to geopolitics. In fact, the "Chimerica" model - a term coined by historian Niall Ferguson to refer to the US-China economic symbiosis - seems to be gradually disintegrating in reality. Instead, there is a new form of relationship with both cooperation and competition, in which the competition element is increasingly prominent. New personnel, new storms Re-elected President Donald Trump has chosen Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor. Both have a tough stance on Beijing. Mr. Trump also plans to bring back former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who has a tough stance on China. With such famously tough personnel on Beijing, US-China relations in the Trump 2.0 term will likely face two main new challenges as follows: One is the possibility of a trade war. Mr. Trump has repeatedly announced that he will impose a 60% tax on all imports from China and will tighten the export of high-tech goods, especially semiconductor chips, to limit China's development. Not only that, the former President himself also said very frankly that "China has taken away 31% of our auto manufacturing industry" - which shows that the US will increase protection of domestic manufacturing, accompanied by unpredictable retaliatory measures from Beijing. In addition, there are still many disagreements between the two countries on industrial subsidies and intellectual property rights. Second, there are new uncertainties about regional security. The US may increase support for Taiwan, including expanding military cooperation and increasing patrols in the Taiwan Strait. In the East Sea, the US may conduct more freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) and increase its military presence. Not only that, the US is likely to step up military cooperation with regional allies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and expand geopolitical competition with China to other regions such as Africa and Latin America. Inevitable interdependence Despite rising tensions, the reality shows that the US and China still have a fairly deep interdependence in many aspects. Regarding trade and investment: The latest figures show that China is still the US's largest trading partner, with two-way trade reaching over 690 billion USD in 2023. The US continues to be China's most important export market, accounting for about 17% of total exports. Research from the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that a complete severance of trade relations could reduce the GDP of both countries by 1-2%. In terms of investment, data from Rhodium Group shows that the total cumulative direct investment between the two countries will reach approximately $240 billion by the end of 2023, including many important projects in the fields of high technology, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. In terms of supply chains and technology: China plays a key role in the global supply chains of many important industries. According to a McKinsey report, about 80% of electronic components, 70% of medical devices and 60% of global pharmaceutical ingredients originate from or pass through China. This poses a major challenge to the US's efforts to "decouple from China". In the field of technology, especially AI, both countries are leading the world with their own advantages. The US excels in basic research and software development, while China is strong in practical applications and big data. The interdependence in this field makes the US's policy of completely separating from China difficult to implement. Factors affecting the future of US-China relations US-China relations under Trump 2.0 are expected to continue to face many challenges, but deep interdependence forces both sides to maintain a certain level of cooperation. However, developments in the coming time will depend on many factors. First of all, China's preparation. Accordingly, the better China prepares, the more cautious the US must be and the more selective its containment measures must be. In fact, China has made quite comprehensive preparations in three notable points as follows: First, implementing the "Dual Circulation" strategy to reduce dependence on foreign export markets and technology. According to World Bank data, the share of exports in China's GDP has fallen from 36% in 2006 to around 20% in 2023. Beijing is investing heavily in research and development, with a 2023 research and development budget of $372 billion, equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. Second, it is focusing on developing domestic capabilities, especially in key areas such as semiconductors, AI and quantum technology. According to a CSIS report, the number of Chinese AI patents has tripled in the past five years, surpassing the US in number. Third, it is actively diversifying international partnerships, especially with emerging economies and developing countries; upgrading relations with Russia to a "comprehensive strategic partnership", while cooperation with BRICS countries and the Shanghai Organization has been strengthened and expanded into many new areas. Next, how strong the Trump 2.0 administration will be in its fight against China also depends on a number of factors. The first is internal factors within the United States. According to a 2023 Pew Research Center survey, 82% of Americans have a negative view of China, the highest level in history. At the same time, bipartisan lawmakers in the US are also pushing many bills to tighten controls on investment and technology transfer with China. The Republican Party regaining control of both houses of Congress could also impact President Trump becoming stronger and more decisive in implementing his policies and strategies towards China. The second is the ability of the two countries to control geopolitical hotspots, especially the Taiwan issue. According to experts from the Brookings Institution, the ability to maintain stability on this issue will be the key to determining the overall level of tension in the US-China bilateral relationship. Third is the effectiveness of long-standing high-level US-China dialogue channels. Experience from Trump's first term shows that maintaining regular dialogue mechanisms, especially in the economic and security fields, plays an important role in preventing conflicts and managing disagreements. Fourth is the influence of third countries. The stance of the EU and the US's Western allies on issues such as technology export controls or supply chains will have a major impact on the effectiveness of the economic measures the US applies to China. In addition, the development of the war in Ukraine in general and Russia-China cooperation will also have a significant impact on the US-China relationship. In short, US-China relations under Trump 2.0 are expected to continue to face many challenges, but the deep interdependence forces both sides to maintain a certain level of cooperation. With the personality and special negotiating ability of "businessman Trump", it is not impossible that the US and China will reach a comprehensive agreement. However, this is still the most contradictory and complicated relationship in the world, because there are not only purely economic and commercial factors, but behind it is also a simmering but fierce competition for the number one position in the world with profound impacts on the world situation and international relations.
Báo Dân trí•25/11/2024
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