Gold price is forecast to increase to 200 million VND/tael, what will happen?

The domestic gold price this morning (March 31) increased to over 101.5 million VND/tael, breaking the previous record. Experts said that in the long term, many forecasts that gold could reach 3,500 USD/ounce, even 4,000 USD/ounce. With the domestic and international prices remaining at a difference of 4-5 million VND/tael, the domestic gold price could reach 150-200 million VND/tael.

Gold price record increase

At 11am, businesses continued to sharply increase the price of gold following the international price to a new record level. Gold trading businesses simultaneously sharply increased the price of gold bars to 101.5 million VND/tael. This is the highest price ever.

Saigon Jewelry Company lists gold bar prices SJC 99.2 - 101.5 million VND/tael for buying and selling, an increase of 800,000 VND/tael for both directions compared to early this morning.

The price of gold rings also increased along with gold bars. Specifically, Bao Tin Minh Chau Company Limited listed the price of gold rings at 99.3 - 101.6 million VND/tael, an increase of 400,000 VND/tael for buying and 900,000 VND/tael for selling compared to early this morning.

Domestic gold prices increase continuously following world gold prices (photo: Nhu Y).

Phu Quy Gold and Gemstone Group listed the price of gold rings at 99.2 - 101.5 million VND/tael.

In just 3 months from the beginning of the year until now, the price of gold has increased by about 16 million VND/tael, equivalent to 19%. At the same time, the price of gold world increased sharply to 3,109 USD/ounce, equivalent to 97 million VND/tael.

How much will gold prices increase and when?

Talk to PV Tien Phong , Dr. Tran Viet Dung - Institute of Scientific Research Banking Academy - said that gold prices continue to be affected by domestic and international factors. World gold prices exceeded forecasts to exceed the 3,100 USD/ounce mark.

According to Mr. Dung, the reason for the sharp increase in world gold prices is that the demand for gold purchases by Central Banks has continued to increase since 2024. According to the report of the World Gold Council, in 2024, Central Banks around the world added a total of 1,045 tons of gold to their reserves, marking the third consecutive year that the amount of gold purchased reached more than 1,000 tons, in which, Central Banks in emerging markets are still leading in gold storage activities.

A gold expert added that the world gold price increased because of President Trump's tax policies, which will affect inflation and the recession of the US economy. Accordingly, people will seek gold as a safe haven. In addition to central banks actively buying gold, investment funds are also buying a lot at this time.

According to the expert, the world gold price today and tomorrow will likely continue to increase to the mark of 3,115 - 3,120 USD/ounce: "In my opinion, this is the peak and after reaching this peak, the world gold price will decrease when investment funds take profits. In the long term, many forecasts that gold can reach 3,500 USD/ounce, even 4,000 USD/ounce. With the difference between domestic and world prices of 4-5 million VND/tael, the domestic gold price can reach 150-200 million VND/tael".

The expert advised people to buy gold at this time, but buying with the mentality of "accumulating" over time will still have the potential to make a profit. In the case of "surfing" and buying according to the crowd mentality will bring great risks.

Sharing more about the factors affecting domestic gold prices in addition to world prices, Mr. Tran Viet Dung - Institute of Banking Science Research - said that domestic gold demand is still an important factor affecting gold prices. According to the World Gold Council, Vietnam is often among the countries with the largest gold consumption in the world, especially in Southeast Asia (Vietnam is second only to Thailand in terms of gold consumption demand). In the third quarter of 2024, Vietnam's total gold demand decreased compared to the second quarter due to record high gold prices, but gold continues to be a safe investment channel and is favored by people in the context of many economic fluctuations.

Mr. Dung added that rising inflation often pushes up gold prices because gold is considered a tool to hedge against inflation risks. If inflation in Vietnam remains high this year, people will increase their holdings of gold to protect the value of their assets.

According to the World Bank's forecast, the increase in the middle class in Vietnam also contributes to the demand for gold accumulation and consumption. In addition, if inflation in developed countries such as the United States remains higher than the 2% target, the demand for gold may increase sharply, combined with persistent inflationary pressures, such as from energy costs or supply chains, which may cause the world gold price to continue to increase, dragging down the domestic gold price.

Source