In early June 2024, Robusta coffee prices increased due to the still very scarce supply, partly due to concerns about the crop in Vietnam, while demand remained high. In addition, shipping rates and cargo prices increased. In addition, widespread port congestion in Asia caused shipping rates on routes to the United States and Europe to skyrocket and a large amount of goods were stuck at ports. This could cause a temporary disruption in coffee supply, pushing coffee prices on the world market to stay high.
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| As of June 15, Vietnam had exported more than 862,400 tons of coffee of all kinds, earning about 3.04 billion USD. |
However, according to a report by consultancy Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee harvest was 29% complete as of June 4, up from 26% at the same time in 2023/24 and above the five-year average of 27%. While coffee from Brazil’s new crop has yet to appear on the market, global supplies of Arabica coffee from other sources continue to increase. Global shipments increased 11% from October 2023 to April 2024, compared to the same period last year, according to ICO data.
Robusta and Arabica coffee prices are expected to decline in the coming time. The coffee harvest in Brazil is expected to end in July 2024. According to the forecast of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil's coffee output this season could reach 69.9 million bags (60 kg/bag); of which, Arabica coffee output is expected to increase by 7.35% and Robusta coffee output is estimated to increase by 1.4%. These figures are slightly higher than forecasts from market research firms. When new supplies from Brazil are released to the market, world coffee prices may be under downward pressure.
Preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs show that as of June 15, Vietnam had exported more than 862,400 tons of coffee of all kinds, earning about 3.04 billion USD. Compared to the same period last year, the volume of exported coffee decreased by 7.8% but the value increased sharply by 38.8%.
Despite the decrease in coffee export volume, the industry still set a historical record when the turnover exceeded 3 billion USD in less than half a year. This figure is also equivalent to the coffee export turnover of the whole year of 2021.
Among the 10 largest coffee export markets of Vietnam in the first 5 months of the year, while coffee exports to Germany, Italy, the United States, and Russia decreased, exports to Spain, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, the Netherlands, and China increased.
Of which, coffee exports to the Spanish market increased by 102%; the Philippine market increased by 140.5% and the Dutch market increased by 107.4% compared to the same period last year.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development believes that with our country's coffee output, this year, the export turnover of this industry will reach over 5 billion USD - the highest level in history.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-robusta-va-arabica-se-giam-trong-thoi-gian-toi-327525.html
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