Although the price adjustment range of each locality will be different, experts say that the real estate market will be affected, especially businesses operating in this field.
Practical requirements require that the new adjusted land price list must comply with the 2024 Land Law and help the market become more transparent, aiming for fairness in land price calculation, resolving the problems of people whose land is recovered, contributing to speeding up the site clearance progress in many projects, especially for key projects...
However, many businesses shared that they were very nervous, even “holding their breath” waiting for the new land price list to be issued because of the forecast that project costs would increase or the increase in expenses related to land use fees that were previously “temporarily calculated” according to the old price. As for home buyers, they are still worried and troubled because housing prices have increased too quickly over the past time and may not stop…
Mr. Le Dinh Chung - General Director of SGO Homes - member of the Market Research Working Group of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) said that the market is facing a number of issues regarding financial obligations related to project land, including land use fees, land rent, taxes, fees, and charges related to land.
Some real estate markets have not yet recovered. Using input data to determine land prices in the last 2 years, which may coincide with the time when the real estate market was still in a "hot" phase, is unreasonable and will easily lead to determining land prices that are not consistent with the current reality.
In particular, the recent violations in price appraisal that have caused losses to the State budget have caused many localities to “avoid” responsibility and fear legal risks. They often choose to approve land prices at high levels or delay approval to be “safe”.
Therefore, projects that have had their land prices approved early are often higher than the ground level, leading to low business efficiency and even the risk of loss. Meanwhile, projects that have not had their land prices determined are stalled and behind schedule - Mr. Chung raised the issue.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Van Loi - Director of Dat Vang Real Estate Joint Stock Company commented that in the past, many projects had high winning bid prices due to the behavior of paying higher prices and then giving up deposits, not paying the winning bid price, even willing to disregard risks, fulfilling obligations in the auction to legalize the winning price. The purpose was to "inflate prices", create a "virtual" price level to "push up prices" of land lots in the area for profit.
Although the authorities have stepped in to inspect, this action is mainly to ensure the transparency and legality of the auction process and is unlikely to interfere with market prices. Because in a market economy, the parties involved in the transaction follow the principle of mutual agreement, they can completely cancel the deposit without proof. Especially when Vietnam does not have any legal documents clearly defining the current speculative and price-inflating behavior as a basis for handling - Mr. Loi analyzed.
Before localities issue new land price lists, experts and businesses want to consider the timing and calculate carefully to avoid "reverse impacts".
Mr. Ngo Quang Phuc - General Director of Phu Dong Group said that when the new land price list is issued, it will more or less affect the real estate market. However, the best solution to limit the increase in real estate prices is that the State needs to support businesses in shortening legal procedures for projects, increasing the supply of affordable housing, social housing... from which the selling price will be stabilized. This is also an effective solution to help stabilize and develop the market sustainably - Mr. Phuc expected.
Evaluating the real estate market in 2025, experts believe that land and apartments will be two segments that promise high liquidity with good profit growth potential. However, experts also warn that despite being highly appreciated for its potential, investing in land also contains risks.
Currently, land prices in many areas are increasing without any basis. In the period of 2018 - 2022, land prices in Ha Dong district (Hanoi) increased 2.25 times, from 40 million VND to 90 million VND/m2 and now far exceed the 100 million VND/m2 mark. In Hanoi, land in suburban areas such as Ring Road 4 is becoming the center of attention. The number of investors looking for land has increased by 30% compared to previous quarters, mostly concentrated in Soc Son, Me Linh, Thanh Oai, Dan Phuong... Many investors "invite" each other to buy because they expect land prices to increase by several times when the infrastructure is completed.
Not only land plots are expected to "create waves", the apartment segment also maintains its attractiveness with a big jump in prices as in the past. According to the forecast of One Housing - a high-end real estate distributor, the supply of apartments will increase nearly 3 times in 2025 - 2026 compared to 2023. Specifically, it is expected that about 23,000 apartments will be launched in 2025. However, most of the apartments are still in the mid-range and high-end segments. Therefore, the "thirst" for affordable housing has not been met.
CBRE Hanoi Director Nguyen Hoai An predicted that apartment prices will not decrease, but will only increase slowly by about 5-8%. In the context of supply focusing on the high-end segment, people with real housing needs with average incomes will continue to "dream". Notably, the imbalance between segments will affect investment decisions and market liquidity.
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/du-bao-dien-bien-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-khi-co-bang-gia-dat-moi/20241114085004793
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