Predicted university entrance exam scores for 2023

According to many experts, an increase in average scores in Biology, Literature, and English will lead to an increase in the cutoff scores for related subject combinations.

According to the score distribution for the 9 subjects in the high school graduation exam announced by the Ministry of Education and Training on the morning of July 18th, the average scores for most subjects changed insignificantly compared to last year. Excluding Civic Education – a subject rarely included in university entrance exam combinations – the Biology score showed the most fluctuation, increasing by 1.37 points compared to last year's average, reaching 6.39.

Three other subjects saw an increase in average scores: Literature, English, and Chemistry, but the increase was not significant, only 0.06-0.35. Meanwhile, the average scores for Mathematics, Physics, History, and Geography decreased by 0.1-0.35.

Due to a significant increase in the average score for Biology, the combined score for the B00 group (Mathematics, Chemistry, Biology) also increased by 1.21 points, from an average of 18.19 to 19.4. The D01 group (Mathematics, Literature, English) also recorded an increase in average score, but not as much, from 18.13 last year to 18.56 this year.

The average scores for other traditional subject combinations, including A00 (Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry), A01 (Mathematics, Physics, English), and C00 (Literature, History, Geography), decreased slightly by 0.07 to 0.49 points. Among these, the A00 combination recorded the lowest average score in the past four years.

According to Master Phung Quan from the University of Science , Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, the cut-off scores will not fluctuate much. He predicts that majors with cut-off scores of 27 or higher will see a slight increase or remain unchanged, especially in highly sought-after fields such as Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Data Science.

Majors with scores below 27 points will tend to see a slight decrease. This forecast is somewhat similar to what Hanoi University of Technology and Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology shared before the Ministry of Education and Training announced the exam results. At that time, the universities' predictions were based on assessments of the exam questions from high school teachers and students, as well as the decrease in the number of candidates choosing the Natural Sciences exam – a source of recruitment for engineering schools – compared to the previous year.

Regarding the B00 and D01 subject combinations specifically, Mr. Quan predicts that the cut-off scores will increase slightly.

As a biology teacher – the subject with the most significant score fluctuations this year – Mr. Dinh Duc Hien from the HOCMAI Education System believes that the cut-off score for the B00 combination will remain the same or increase slightly by 0.25-0.5 points at top-tier universities; and increase by 1-2 points at universities with lower entrance requirements.

The reason is that the peak score for the B00 combination is between 21 and 21.5, nearly 2 points higher than last year. The top 10 candidates with the highest scores in the B00 combination this year also scored 0.3-0.5 points higher than the leading group in 2022.

Analyzing the group of students who achieved high scores in the subjects, Professor Nguyen Dinh Duc, Chairman of the University Council of the University of Technology, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, also noted that subject combinations including Biology, English, and Literature could see a slight increase of 0.5-1 point compared to last year.

The reason is that the percentage of students scoring 8 or higher in these subjects has increased. For example, in Biology, this percentage reached 10.57%, double that of last year. For English and Literature, the number of students achieving high scores also increased by around 3%.

Conversely, the number of exam papers scoring 8 or higher in subjects like Mathematics, Chemistry, Physics, History, and Geography is significantly lower than last year. For example, in Geography, the percentage of papers scoring 8 or higher is 6.6%, compared to 16.7% last year. Mathematics scores decreased from 21.8% last year to 15.1% this year. In Chemistry, the percentage is 22.6% this year, lower than last year's 27.8%.

Therefore, Mr. Duc believes that subject combinations including Mathematics, Chemistry, and Geography are expected to have lower admission scores by 0.5-1.5 points.

Despite a thorough analysis of the exam scores, Mr. Duc believes that the increase or decrease in the cutoff scores will depend on the enrollment quota compared to last year. If the quota for other admission methods increases significantly, while the quota for admission based on high school graduation results decreases, then the cutoff scores for all majors are expected to decrease within a range of 0.5-1.5 points.

Students taking the high school graduation exam in Ho Chi Minh City on June 29. Photo: Quynh Tran

Associate Professor Bui Duc Trieu, Head of the Training Department at the National Economics University, also predicted that university admission scores might decrease. According to the rule, lower exam scores lead to lower cut-off scores, but the top-tier majors will not see much change. Mid-tier majors will experience more significant changes, but with this year's mechanism of reducing bonus points, the fluctuations will not be drastic.

"Overall, the trend of stability will be dominant. Candidates should refer to last year's scores, adding or subtracting about 0.5-1 point depending on the group of majors to consider registering for suitable nguyện vọng (preferences)," Mr. Trieu said.

This year's high school graduation exam took place over two days, June 28-29, with more than one million candidates participating. Of these, over 943,300 used their results for both graduation recognition and university/college admissions.

Based on their exam scores, candidates can register, adjust, and supplement their university admission preferences until 5 PM on July 30th, with no limit on the number of times. From July 31st to 5 PM on August 6th, candidates must pay the university admission application fee online.

Find schools and majors that match your exam scores.

The Ministry of Education and Training and universities began the process of reviewing and processing university applications from August 12th to 20th, thereby determining the highest-priority choices for successful candidates.

From 5 PM on August 22nd, universities will announce the cut-off scores and the list of admitted students for the first round. Candidates must confirm their enrollment before 5 PM on September 6th.

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