The 2024 US presidential election, taking place on November 5, will be a confrontation between incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This is an important political event that can create a major turning point and have a profound impact on American democracy as well as the country's approach to the world, especially in the context of global conflict and turmoil.
Although Mr. Trump is facing many legal challenges, this has not diminished his support from voters. The possibility of Mr. Trump winning the election is still quite large.
And if this happens, US foreign policy will be of primary concern to both the United States and the world.
On foreign policy
Although there are currently many concerns that if Mr. Trump wins, there will be many changes in US foreign policy, but most experts agree that whether Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump wins, there will not be too many obvious differences in US foreign policy.
If Mr. Trump wins, he will probably maintain the “erratic and confrontational” diplomatic style, especially with NATO allies, as he did in his first term. However, on the other hand, in his second term, Mr. Trump may not really implement a foreign policy that is much different from the US foreign policy under Mr. Biden, especially on important issues on the US agenda such as Ukraine, China or the Middle East...
Russia – Ukraine conflict
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Biden-Harris administration has gone all out to support Kiev, despite opposition from many Republican lawmakers and the increasingly dire prospects that Kiev could win or regain lost territory.
However, political observers assess that if Mr. Trump is re-elected, US policy towards Ukraine will change significantly and it is very likely that the US will cut aid to Kiev.
However, there is no guarantee that Ms. Harris will continue to maintain current aid to Ukraine if she wins, especially in the context of the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield having changed in an unfavorable direction in 2023.
In general, international political experts agree that both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump will try to push Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war after January 2025 and the agreement reached may be closer to Russia's goals than Kiev's.
China and hot issues in Asia
During his presidency, Mr. Trump decisively abandoned the economic cooperation policy with China that the US had previously implemented to launch a costly trade war. The US administration under President Biden has continued this policy, even increasing stricter measures against China to hinder Beijing's efforts in some key areas such as technology and semiconductors.
In fact, the approach to China is one of the few issues that enjoys strong bipartisan support in the United States. Both Biden and Trump agree that China is the only power in the international system that has both the intention and the ability to challenge the US-led world order. Therefore, whether Trump or Harris wins, US policy toward China will not change much.
Meanwhile, for Asian allies, if Mr. Trump wins, his approach may be tougher because in his previous term he repeatedly criticized allies for being too dependent on US protection. However, he certainly will not be able to abandon them, especially in the context of increasingly fierce strategic competition with China in the region.
In addition, Mr. Trump's policy approach to Asia and hot regional issues such as Taiwan, the East Sea, and strategic competition with China are issues that need to be monitored.
The Middle East "furnace"
It can be seen that both the Trump and Biden administrations have similar approaches to the Middle East issue and no matter who wins the upcoming White House race, US policy towards the Arab world will not be much different.
As President of the United States, Mr. Trump abandoned the nuclear deal with Iran, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), on May 8, 2018, moved the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and closed the US Consular Office in charge of Palestinian affairs in Washington.
Mr Trump has pushed for normalisation of Israel's relations with the Arab world, but has done nothing to address the plight of millions of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s policy on the Middle East issue has not been as different as expected. In fact, the Biden administration has been implementing a policy of both supporting Israel’s campaign against Hamas and promoting a “two-state” solution to seek peace and stability in the region despite opposition from its ally Israel. If she wins, Ms. Harris is expected to continue her predecessor’s policy.
So far, the US's actions have been mainly reactive to developments on the ground, and have failed to fundamentally resolve the situation. The US is currently in a dilemma between how to protect its ally Israel and appease the Arab world.
Furthermore, the US's dilemma has doubled after the recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. Currently, the US is advocating for peace and not escalating the situation. However, if the situation becomes more complicated, threatening the security of its ally Israel and the US's strategic interests in the region, it is possible that the US could ask its allies with forces in the Middle East (such as the UK and France) to intervene.
Despite occasional declines in priority, the Middle East remains one of the most strategically important areas for the United States. Therefore, there will not be much difference in US policy towards the Middle East in the near future.
However, the changes that Mr. Trump could bring to US policy in the Middle East will be significant. It is possible that the Trump administration will step up efforts to weaken the Iranian economy, strengthen ties with Gulf countries to both promote normalization of relations with Israel and strengthen cooperation to contain Iran, with the ultimate goal of weakening Iran.
There is also the possibility that Mr. Trump will decide to withdraw US forces from Syria and Iraq. And of course, the new Trump administration will not welcome refugees, especially Muslim refugees.
Relations with NATO
While the Biden-Harris administration advocates a policy of improving relations with Europe, Donald Trump could create major problems for many European countries if he wins. During his presidency, Trump has often criticized NATO and wanted to cut the budget contribution to the bloc.
It is possible that Mr. Trump will find a way to withdraw the US from NATO despite opposition from the country's diplomatic and defense sectors. However, many political experts believe that this seems to be just a "negotiating tactic" to push US allies to increase defense spending and reduce the burden on Washington. Moreover, some believe that recent statements show that Mr. Trump is less inclined to mention the US withdrawal from NATO as before. He stated that the US will "100% stay in NATO under his leadership as long as European countries "play fair".
Europe is still anxiously awaiting the results of the US presidential election because it is clear that if Mr. Trump wins, they will have more to worry about. European Central Bank leader Christine Lagarde has said that Mr. Trump's re-election would be a "threat" to Europe.
Preparations by the US and its allies
The confrontation between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as well as the possibility of Trump winning is raising concerns about the upcoming US foreign policy. Therefore, the current US administration as well as close US allies are actively strategizing to address potential challenges.
For the US, the US policy establishment may be conducting discussions about potential scenarios, with the State Department, National Security Council, and Department of Defense engaging in scenario planning activities to assess the potential ramifications of different policy outcomes under a hypothetical Trump administration.
Legally, however, the Biden administration may face obstacles in restraining its pursuit of Trump's policies after a potential election defeat, especially if the House remains in Republican hands after the election.
Late last year, the US Congress passed a defense budget bill that included a provision that prevents the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without the consent of Congress or an Act of Congress. This provision underscores the US commitment to NATO, which the Biden-Harris administration has taken more seriously than its predecessor, especially on the issue of Ukraine.
Moreover, with Mr. Trump’s foreign policy stance, it is conceivable that not only the US government but also other countries, especially US allies, are taking some steps to adjust their policies to suit the upcoming situation. US allies are currently actively taking steps to protect or promote their interests in case Mr. Trump returns to power.
Several Reuters interviews with diplomats and government officials around the world suggest preparations for a “Trump 2.0 scenario.” Mexico, for example, has discussed appointing a new foreign minister with knowledge of Mr. Trump in the June election, while Australia has discussed the role of its special envoy in protecting submarine deals.
German officials are rushing to speed up negotiations with Republican governors in the US, as Germany invests heavily in US industry. Meanwhile, in Asia, US ally Japan is also taking steps to strengthen its diplomatic engagement with a possible Trump administration, fearing that Mr Trump could revive trade protectionism and demand that Japan contribute more to the budget for maintaining US forces in Japan.
The results of the US presidential election on November 5 are an event that not only American voters but also the whole world are interested in because it not only affects US domestic politics but also international issues. In addition to domestic affairs, important issues in US foreign policy from Ukraine, the Middle East, China or transatlantic issues will be the prism for American voters to measure the judgment and upcoming policies of the US president.
Whichever candidate wins, it could signal changes in US foreign policy that could shape the trajectory of international relations for years to come.
According to FP, Economist, WSJ
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