Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh identifies decisive factors in US election before "G" hour

The 2024 US Presidential election is extremely close, potentially bringing many changes to the land of the stars and stripes, in which economic development and people's lives are among the core issues that will determine the final result, according to Mr. Pham Quang Vinh, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs , Vietnamese Ambassador to the US (2014 - 2018) shared withKinh te & Do thi.

Mr. Pham Quang Vinh, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs , Vietnamese Ambassador to the US (2014 - 2018). Photo: Phuong Thanh

How is the US political landscape in the 2024 election different and similar to this event in 2020?

The overall picture of America entering the 2024 election has many differences despite the difficulties and political division.

After the pandemic, for a long time, President Joe Biden's administration has suffered severe impacts. Therefore, despite the US economy achieving new achievements such as growth of more than 2%, escaping recession, and controlling inflation, the general feeling among people is still that of economic and income decline.

What is also special is that the Democratic Party “changed horses in midstream”, making the race start as a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, then become Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Mr. Trump went from winning against Mr. Biden to being on par with and even at times “inferior” to Ms. Kamala Harris. In addition, the administration of President Joe Biden and Ms. Kamala Harris are also facing the problem of proving their achievements in the past four years in power.

Another point is that the US is not only facing domestic problems such as polarization or overcoming the consequences of the pandemic, but also external stories such as the Ukraine crisis or the Middle East that have a direct impact on this year's race.

Taking place in this context, the election became close, extremely fierce, and the candidates competed very fiercely.

In that context, what do the American people expect from a President, in your opinion? What issues are urgent and need to be solved?

The two core factors, economics and democratic values, will create the greatest division and have the strongest impact on this election.

First, after the pandemic, the economic situation and inflation affect the psychology of Americans. For them, immediate issues such as jobs, life, cost of living... are now top priorities.

In public opinion polls, people still believe that the economy grew better during Trump's tenure. But this is not the reality. It is true that in the early days of Donald Trump's administration, the US economy grew by 3%, but in the final stage, the pandemic had an impact and created consequences. Mr. Biden was objectively affected by the pandemic.

Second is a series of hot issues such as immigration, women's rights including abortion rights or racial and ethnic conflicts, as well as foreign affairs with the Middle East story, because American voters have a part of Muslims, Palestinians of Arab origin. America is currently divided on these points.

Mr. Pham Quang Vinh, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vietnamese Ambassador to the US (2014 - 2018). Photo: Phuong Thanh

America's economic and foreign policies are of great interest in the coming time. Through this election, how do you assess the differences between the two candidates regarding these policies and the changes America may experience in the near future?

Economically, the Democratic Party emphasizes providing welfare for middle-income and low-income people, with more subsidies; taxing large corporations and elites, leading to increased public spending.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party advocates reducing regulations and taxes on corporations so that they can focus on developing production, thereby increasing employment for the people, promoting privatization of healthcare, education... and only supporting the poorest people, on the other hand, reducing the burden on the public budget.

Specifically, with the current tax rate on high-income earners at 20%, Mr. Trump calls for a reduction to 15% while Ms. Harris wants to raise it to 28% - a revised rate, lower than Mr. Joe Biden's proposal of 30%, or even 39%. Regarding welfare provision, Mr. Trump wants to increase employment so that people can buy their own health insurance and education services, while Ms. Harris proposes a program to support the poor but has not yet determined the source of funding.

In foreign affairs, any future leader of the United States will emphasize America's interests and leading role in the world, but their approaches will be very different.

Ms. Harris basically follows the foreign policy of the Democratic Party, following Mr. Joe Biden's implementation over the past 4 years, emphasizing democracy, human rights, labor rights, partnerships with allies, and openness to multilateral mechanisms. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump, with his view that America's interests are paramount, may be more pragmatic, saying that the US should not participate much in multilateral institutions and continue moves such as withdrawing from the Paris Agreement or the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Regarding aid to Ukraine, Mr. Trump may maintain the view that "for every dollar the US spends, our allies must also spend a dollar", as well as mentioning contributions to NATO.

On the other hand, there is also an issue that both sides have in common, which is that great power competition has been pushed into strategic competition and thus the possibility of US-China competition remains fierce.

Ms. Kamala Harris and Mr. Donald Trump - two candidates in the 2024 US Presidential election. Photo: The Boston Globe

The polls so far have been extremely close, in this final stretch, is there a surprise element to the election and if so, what is it?

This is a very heated election, in the context of a polarized America. So far, the initial excitement of Kamala Harris has faded, and Trump's support base has slowed down. Both sides are now trying to consolidate their support and attract moderates.

In national polls, Ms. Harris has been leading at times, but not by a large margin. The battle for voters in seven battleground states will decide the success or failure of the two candidates. The difference in these states is not more than 1%, and the margin of error means that whoever wins will be very close.

On the other hand, the actual turnout rate is very important. Based on the experience of the 2016 and 2020 elections, just a few tens of thousands of votes can decide the final result. Many voters have declared their support but on election day, they still have the possibility of not voting.

At this final stage, anything can affect people's psychology in the face of issues such as relief after the recent super storm, or any new developments in the Middle East, economic issues...

How do you assess the potential impact of this election on Vietnam-US relations?

This is a 3-in-1 election, not only for the President but also for the US Senate and House of Representatives. Polls show that, so far, not only the race for the White House but also in both houses is extremely fierce, the possibility of a bipartisan division of power is very high.

Therefore, any President who comes to power will hardly be able to impose his party's views, but will need the votes of the opposition party. This requires the US Congress to continue to struggle and make concessions in a tug-of-war to make policies.

If Kamala Harris is elected, it is likely that the United States will continue its open policy in multilateralism and strengthen its allies. Meanwhile, Donald Trump will emphasize the interests of the United States, allies must share the financial burden, partners must be fair, and the issue of trade deficits will be of great concern. On the other hand, it is also a matter of doctrine and reality, perhaps during the election campaign, views will be promoted and become more extreme. Looking at the policies that have been proposed by both candidates or are likely to continue, we need to plan for very different scenarios.

Thank you Ambassador!

Source: https://kinhtedothi.vn/ds-pham-quang-vinh-nhan-dinh-yeu-to-quyet-dinh-vou-cu-my-truoc-gio-g.html