Who is the real culprit of the bloody terrorist attack in Moscow is still unclear. When the IS force itself has confessed, Russia cannot rush to believe it because if it does, Moscow may fall into a trap.
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| Russians line up outside the Crocus theater after a deadly shooting that left hundreds dead and injured. (Source: CNN) |
President Putin's warning and response
According to the Financial Times and the Guardian on March 24, after four gunmen carried out a bloody attack on a concert hall in the Russian capital Moscow on March 22, killing at least 133 people, the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) organization claimed responsibility for the attack. However, in his public speech to the nation after the attack, President Vladimir Putin did not mention this group.
Instead, the Financial Times said, Russia sought to blame Ukraine, in a move analysts said was aimed at deflecting attention from the vulnerabilities in Moscow's security system that have grown since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Notably, the US had publicly warned of “imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow” by terrorists in early March, and the warning was also privately shared with the Russian government, suggesting that Washington had gathered some fairly specific intelligence about an imminent attack.
However, three days before the attack, Mr Putin dismissed these warnings, the Financial Times reported. For a country with a huge and extensive security apparatus like Russia, the slow response to the attack is puzzling. Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian security agencies, commented: "The FSB (Federal Security Service) clearly had the wrong priorities."
However, responding to RIA News Agency on March 24, Russian Ambassador to the US Antonov said: "We did not receive any previous notice or message". "We paid attention to this... but I did not have any contact with the White House or the (US) State Department about the warning", Mr. Antonov added.
The war on terror seemed to be over
Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the FSB has shifted its focus. Previously, the FSB focused almost entirely on the threat of Islamist terrorism, but since 2022, the majority of its statements have been related to Ukraine.
Over time, it can be seen that under President Putin, the heavy-handed tactics in the North Caucasus region, combined with the allowing of thousands of radicals to leave for Syria and Iraq a few years ago, have led to the feeling that the war on Islamist terrorism in Russia is over.
However, according to the Guardian, most of the perpetrators of the March 22 attack were radicalized citizens of Tajikistan. Expert Galeotti said: “Central Asian Islamist terrorism is still a real problem for the FSB. The FSB has a lot of experience dealing with extremists in the Caucasus, they spend huge resources on it, but Central Asia is more of a ‘blind spot’.”
Lucas Webber, co-founder of MilitantWire, a website that specializes in in-depth analysis of terrorism issues, commented that Russia has long been a target of IS and this "increased significantly after the country's military intervention in Syria in 2015, then its involvement across Africa and its relationship with the Taliban".
According to Mr. Webber, while IS was expelled from its strongholds in Iraq and Syria by the international coalition and severely weakened, IS-K - an IS branch based in Afghanistan and also known as IS-Khorasan - has grown into the "most ambitious and internationally minded branch" of IS.
If confirmed, the Moscow concert hall attack would be IS-K’s first major terrorist attack outside of Southwest Asia, which could be aimed at raising the group’s profile and expanding recruitment, said Amira Jadoon, an associate professor in the department of political science at Clemson University.
From another perspective, commenting on the perpetrator of the terrorist attack, Editor-in-Chief of Russia Today news agency Margarita Simonyan said that IS did not mastermind the attack on the theater, accusing Western intelligence of "direct involvement" in the massacre.
In a post on Telegram and X, Ms. Simonyan explained that the perpetrator was chosen to carry out the attack in a way that allowed the West to convince the international community that ISIS-K was the culprit. She said that the “enthusiasm” of the Western media in trying to convince the international community that ISIS was responsible even before Russia had captured the suspect had caused the effort to mislead public opinion.
Russia needs evidence more than explanations
If the US and the West are pushing to admit that IS is the culprit of the terrorist attack, it is completely understandable that Russia cannot immediately believe it.
The US and the West are concerned that Moscow could be further escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict from this shock. As a result, the US and its allies have rushed to confirm that IS is the culprit, while emphasizing that Ukraine is not involved.
Perhaps the West needs to release more intelligence evidence to back this up if it wants that argument to stand.
As for Russia, there is probably no need to rush to announce who is the culprit, because any information indicating Ukraine's involvement at this time will be seen by the West as an excuse created by Russia to intensify its special military campaign in Ukraine.
At the same time, Russian officials also want people to feel that the incident has been investigated comprehensively and thoroughly.
In the meantime, Russia's position, conveyed by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova on March 24, is that any statements from the US administration to justify Kiev before the end of the investigation "will be considered evidence".
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