On December 14, at the Vietnam Real Estate Conference - VRES 2023, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, commented that the Vietnamese real estate market in 2023 has shown positive movements similar to the reversal time of the previous cycle.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn - Source: BTC
Specifically, in the period from 2008 to 2012, real estate inventory increased continuously, until 2013, when market reversal signals appeared when credit was loosened, the 30,000 billion VND support package and the revised Land Law were passed to support the real estate market.
At present, in terms of interest rates, since the beginning of 2023, the State Bank has adjusted the ceiling interest rate down 3 times and lowered the operating interest rate 4 times. Many banks have sharply reduced their interest rates by 3% - 5% compared to the beginning of the year. In terms of credit growth, the credit growth limit for 2023 is 14% - 15% compared to 14% in 2022. However, as of November 22, 2023, the credit growth of the whole system has only reached 8.21%, lower than the target set at the beginning of the year.
In addition, the Law on Real Estate Business and the Law on Housing were passed in November 2023 and will take effect from early 2025. The real estate market also benefits from the Government's moves such as the decision to establish 5 working groups to remove obstacles to public investment, a 2% interest rate support package (equivalent to 40,000 billion VND), and a 120,000 billion VND support package for social housing.
Many positive policies have been issued such as: Decree 08 and Draft Circular 16 (amended) to remove difficulties for the bond market; Resolution 33 to promote a healthy and sustainable real estate market; Decree 10 on guiding the implementation of the Land Law, removing difficulties for resort real estate; Circular 02 and Circular 06 provide solutions to debt...
Speakers attending the seminar - Source: Organizing Committee
“The real estate market’s turning point may appear from the second to fourth quarter of 2024. The market will then enter a new cycle and go through four stages: exploration, consolidation, growth and stability,” Mr. Quoc Anh predicted.
Accordingly, the exploration phase is expected to take place in the second half of 2024 with small-scale liquidity coming from apartment products meeting real housing needs. Next will be the consolidation phase, expected to fall in the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, under the condition that monetary tools and policies are widely promoted, helping to remove difficulties in money sources.
In addition, the Law on Real Estate Business and the Law on Housing, which will take effect from the beginning of 2025, will contribute to unblocking financial resources and removing legal obstacles to orient and motivate a sustainable market development.
Mr. Quoc Anh expects that from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025, the economy will develop strongly, and investment capital in the real estate sector will increase. The financial potential of investors and the improved monetary environment will lead to a recovery in supply and liquidity on a large scale, and real estate prices in this period will also improve along with supply and liquidity.
The Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn commented that after the first quarter of 2026, the real estate industry may gradually enter a period of stability. The market continues to grow well in terms of liquidity and price, and at the same time, many types of real estate appear.
For his part, economist Dr. Can Van Luc commented that the recovering economic situation has clearly impacted the real estate market. Real estate bad debt increased from 1.72% at the end of last year to 2.89% in September this year. "It is clearly increasing but it is still below 3%, under control," Mr. Luc said.
According to the VN-Index, the real estate sector is quite positively evaluated by investors, real estate stock prices increased by nearly 10%. While last year real estate stocks decreased by 38%. Real estate-related policies approved by the National Assembly such as the housing law and the real estate business law will take effect in the first quarter of 2025. Mr. Luc expects this to bring a lot of positive energy to the real estate industry.
Dr. Can Van Luc commented that early 2024 will be a favorable time to make investment decisions in the real estate market, because interest rates have decreased and real estate prices have been reasonably regulated. The expert also emphasized that the real estate market is expected to flourish from the first quarters of 2024.
On the other hand, Mr. Luc pointed out that businesses still have to face three major difficulties: One is cash flow; two is the output market, still demand; three is the problem of human resources.
Along with this viewpoint, the expert believes that, to anticipate real estate trends in the coming time, businesses need to continue to promote restructuring, including restructuring operations, products, markets, investment portfolios and projects.
According to him, businesses need to be decisive in restructuring prices and reducing real estate prices. According to data, real estate prices are still increasing by 6% this year, which is unreasonable compared to people's income.
In addition, in the new context with many changes today, Mr. Luc believes that real estate businesses need to position themselves in a new direction after a difficult time, thereby adapting well to the market and developing sustainably in the future. In addition, it is necessary to pioneer the story of greening, pay more attention to the story of risk management and proactively prepare to implement relevant laws.
Mr. Luc also recommended that experts, brokers, and investors need to standardize according to the law. "From now on, units must prepare for standardization activities before the laws related to real estate business take effect in early 2025. The story of standardization cannot be completed in a day or two, but must be prepared for a whole year," Mr. Luc suggested.
Source
Comment (0)