Proposing many solutions to promote trade growth and exports to Ukraine

Exports still have positive signals

At the European Trade Counsellors Conference held in Italy on July 19, Mr. Hoang Dinh Chai, Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in Ukraine, summarized the Ukrainian economy in recent times and provided useful information for Vietnamese businesses. Accordingly, more than two years of war have significantly changed the economy and economic potential of Ukraine. If in 2023, the Ukrainian economy recovers from the initial shock and increases consumption significantly thanks to strong financial stimulus (reflected in a real budget deficit of more than 20% of GDP for two consecutive years), the possibility of maintaining the same recovery rate in 2024 is very doubtful.

In addition, by the end of 2024, Ukraine’s public debt is forecast to reach an unprecedented level of 95% of GDP. Although much of it is concessional loans with long terms and relatively low interest rates for government spending, the sheer volume of debt will leave Ukraine a highly indebted country that will have to continue seeking post-war loans.

According to economic forecasters, despite the war, Ukraine is still likely to grow by around 4.6% in 2024, and if the war ends in 2024, real GDP growth is expected to average 5% in the following year (2025). By 2027, GDP will be 91% of the 2021 level. In the event that the war continues, this figure will be 88%. Some hopes for economic growth in 2024 are pinned on exports, especially the expansion of the range of exported goods passing through the sea corridor.

Ukraine's main export expectations in 2024 are related to the expansion of the range of goods passing through the sea corridor - Illustration photo

Industry and energy will be key areas of cooperation.

According to the Ukrainian Customs Service, the import-export turnover between Vietnam and Ukraine in 2023 reached 592.679 million USD, an increase of more than 40% compared to 2022. Of which, Vietnam's export turnover to Ukraine in 2023 reached 524.116 million USD, an increase of more than 10% compared to the whole year of 2022. Imports from Ukraine reached 61.196 million USD, a decrease of more than 30% compared to 2022.

At the workshop, Mr. Hoang Dinh Chai, Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in Ukraine, said that although the import-export turnover of the two countries has increased, currently, Vietnamese export enterprises and Ukrainian import enterprises still do not trust each other, especially Vietnamese enterprises. This makes it difficult for trade cooperation between the two countries, especially in the implementation of signed contracts that are stuck and stagnant. In this context, newly signed contracts will still be of interest to both sides but need to be carefully considered.

Vietnam's main export products to Ukraine after the conflict are certainly still essential items that businesses and the state prioritize to import to rebuild the country, such as: Generators, electrical equipment, televisions...; footwear; textiles; tea and coffee; seafood; iron and steel, solar panels and batteries.

Therefore, the Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in Ukraine suggested that in the coming time, when the conflict ends, the Ministry of Industry and Trade should study and organize working delegations to Ukraine to explore cooperation opportunities in the fields of metallurgy, energy, environmental technology, thermal power, hydropower, titanium technology, etc.

In addition, the two countries also need to promote foreign economic relations through practical activities such as supporting the Ukrainian Chamber of Industry and Commerce to organize the Vietnam - Ukraine Business Forum in Vietnam in 2024; supporting Ukrainian business delegations to find Vietnamese partners under the management of the Ministry of Industry and Trade. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also needs to organize delegations at all levels to the market, first of all at the Department level, to study the Intergovernmental Committee meeting that the two countries have stopped during the past time.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/de-xuat-nhieu-giai-phap-de-thuc-day-tang-truong-thuong-mai-xuat-khau-sang-ukraina-333614.html