What will be the growth driver of Vietnamese stocks in 2024?

BSC Securities has just released a report on economic growth and stock market prospects in 2024. In which, this unit believes that the stock market in 2024 will be more positive than in 2023.

The driving forces that help the Vietnamese stock market recover and grow include: the economic environment, the internal market, capital sources or the impact of the world economy.

According to BSC Securities, growth drivers have been maintained and gradually improved in 2023. Economic growth is below expectations despite the active use of monetary and fiscal policy tools. Congestion in the real estate market is also an issue to be noted in 2024.

What will be the growth driver of Vietnam's stock market in 2024? Image 1 — What will be the growth driver of the stock market in 2024? (Photo TL)

In addition, the current imbalance between Vietnam's fiscal policy and the world's needs to be considered. In some countries, central banks have increased interest rates since March 2022 to curb inflation. The State Bank of Vietnam has also made appropriate adjustments by increasing interest rates in September 2022 to protect the strength of the domestic currency.

Entering 2023, to support economic growth, the State Bank of Vietnam has reduced interest rates four times since March 2023. Vietnam's monetary easing policy has gone ahead of many countries, creating room for lending interest rates at commercial banks.

According to BSC Securities' analysis, 2024 will be a more positive year for the Vietnamese stock market. The market's growth momentum will come from many factors such as the trend of decreasing global interest rates, creating a positive impact on Vietnam's manufacturing and export industries.

At the same time, the interest rate reduction will reverse the net selling trend of foreign investors in the Vietnamese stock market.

Besides, in a stable macroeconomic environment, experts expect that monetary and fiscal policies supporting businesses will still be maintained to create growth momentum.

In the international market, Vietnam has now upgraded its relations to the level of comprehensive strategic partnership with the United States and Japan. At the same time, the government is also resolutely implementing solutions to remove bottlenecks in the currency market, bond market, and real estate market. Thereby removing barriers to unblock capital flows for people and businesses.

In addition to the advantages, BSC Securities also pointed out some challenges for the market in the coming year. Notably, some central banks may still maintain high interest rates and delay interest rate reduction policies.

The possibility of a soft landing for the US economy is also uncertain. Geopolitical conflicts are also issues that investors need to consider when evaluating the stock market in 2024.

In the domestic context, risks in the corporate bond market are still present, especially in the real estate business group. Strong capital withdrawal activities in the stock market by foreign investors in 2023 and continuing into early 2024... are all risk factors that need to be taken into account.

Source