Former US Deputy Secretary of Defense: The more it is untangled, the more complicated it becomes, Washington is about to make a difficult decision about Ukraine

Ukraine and Russia are both trying to gain an advantage on the ground and see this as a "card" in peace negotiations. (Source: Getty Images)

Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Bryen said that the US may be forced to make a difficult decision in the near future, because pursuing a "forced peace" could harm the interests of the US itself.

World and Vietnam Newspaper translated the analysis.

Each person, each benefit

It seems that the negotiations between the US-Russia and the US-Ukraine are reaching a dead end.

The US is looking for Europe to shoulder the responsibility of supporting Ukraine so that Washington can focus more on the Middle East and the Pacific region. This forces Europe to decide whether it is willing and able to fill this gap.

"Old story re-edited"

On most fronts, Ukraine is struggling to hold its territory and stave off Russian attacks. CNN describes the Ukrainian military as being on the back foot, meaning it is losing control on the ground.

However, there is one exception, the Belgorod region. This is Russian territory, located in the south of Kursk province.

For months, the city of Belgorod and surrounding villages have been under artillery and drone attacks from Ukraine. Now Kiev has expanded its offensive and made some significant advances in the country.

Ukraine’s real goal in these attacks remains unclear. Some observers believe Kiev wants to force Moscow to move its forces to Belgorod, thereby relieving pressure on other lines of defense, such as Pokrovsk.

This is a tactic that was used in the Kursk campaign, in the hope that Ukraine could gain a “card” to exchange in the upcoming negotiations.

But that's not the whole story.

Kiev also has ambitions to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant, to balance Moscow's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

However, Russia blocked this plan and after 7 months, the Ukrainian army was almost pushed back from Kursk. Currently, Russia has entered Ukrainian territory in the Sumy region.

It is too early to predict the outcome in Belgorod. Two villages, Popovka and Demidovka, have been attacked several times. Kiev continues to send in more troops, most recently the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, suggesting that it believes victory is possible.

The region’s governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said Ukraine had attacked more than 20 villages. There were no immediate reports of casualties on either side.

If they can hold some of the attacking villages, Kiev could get a temporary morale boost, but it is unclear how long they can maintain this advantage.

Former US Deputy Secretary of Defense: The more it is untangled, the more complicated it becomes, Washington is about to make a difficult decision about Ukraine

Peace negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine conflict are fragile as the interests of both sides do not coincide. (Source: Getty Images)

Does Europe dare to bet?

Meanwhile, France and Britain, along with several other countries, are discussing plans to send European forces to support Ukraine. The latest idea is to send both air and naval forces to Ukraine.

A delegation is being sent to the Eastern European country.

to identify deployment locations if this plan is implemented.

However, fighter jets would be vulnerable in eastern Ukraine due to Russia’s multi-layered air defenses. Likewise, naval forces would face many obstacles.

President Putin has agreed to a deal on the Black Sea that could fall apart if Britain and France send their navies to the region to “protect” Ukraine. Both countries have aircraft carriers, but whether they would risk placing these strategic assets so close to Russia remains a big question mark.

It is possible that Britain and France, perhaps with tacit support from the United States, are preparing a plan to defend western Ukraine if Russia wins.

To do this, they need support from Poland. However, the Polish government has shown no interest in intervening in the conflict.

The big challenge for Europe

If talks between Ukraine and Russia fail, the last resort could be for Europe to take on the role of security guarantor for part of Ukraine.

But air and naval forces are only a temporary solution. Europe would have to deploy ground troops in western Ukraine. But they don’t have enough troops or weapons at the moment. If they were forced to do so, they would risk Moscow attacking their logistical bases in Poland and Romania.

Depending on the course of the conflict and the size of the forces Russia can mobilize, Moscow could quickly achieve its territorial and political goals. The territorial goals have been made public by Russia, while the political goal is to force NATO to withdraw from Ukraine and change the Kiev government.

The big question now is what the Trump administration will do if the peace process it has been trying to broker collapses. Sanctions are unlikely to change the situation and could even damage the US economy. Washington will have to make some tough decisions.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/former-president-of-vietnam-is-getting-more-and-more-and-more-and-more-washington-is-about-to-have-to-decide-on-ukraine-309529.html