The fight has reached its climax, 'calling out' direct military confrontation?

Israel is still divided over how to respond to Iran's attack, but that does not mean the Middle East is not at risk of falling into a new spiral of violence.

Iran cannot help but respond to Israel's bombing and destruction of the Iranian Embassy consulate building in Damascus, Syria. (Source: AFP)

On the night of April 13-14, Iran launched a series of missiles and drones into Israeli territory. This was Iran's first direct attack on Israel since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, in response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian Embassy consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on April 1, killing many people, including two generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Immediately after the consulate attack, the top leaders including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Ebrahim Raisi, and IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami all declared a severe response to Israel's actions. Thus, Iran could not help but carry out its declaration.

Iran's Message

Iran has stated that if the UN Security Council condemns Israel's attack on its consulate in Syria, Iran will not attack Israel. However, at an emergency meeting on April 2, 2024, the Security Council did not issue a statement condemning Israel due to the obstruction of the US, UK and France.

Tehran's attack on Israel was on one hand in response to the attack on the Iranian Embassy in Syria, showing its determination to protect its independence and sovereignty, and on the other hand in reaction to the pro-Israel attitude of the US and the West.

The official spokesman for the Israeli military, General Daniel Hagari, said that in the five-hour attack, Iran launched 185 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles at Israeli territory. The missiles and drones launched at Israel are believed to have come from the territory of five countries, the majority from Iran, the rest from Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

In launching this attack, Iran's main goal was not to provoke conflict with the Jewish state, but to send some messages.

First, it warned Tel Aviv not to repeat similar actions against Iranian diplomatic missions and interests. That is why, after firing a series of missiles and drones at Israel, Tehran announced the end of its military campaign. In fact, political analysts believe that Iran's attack on Israel, despite its large scale and massive propaganda, did not cause significant damage to Israel.

Second, affirming Iran's military strength and indispensable role in the region and the world. In the recent attack, Iran used modern ballistic missiles and drones that can travel nearly 2,000 km to reach Israel.

Third, it is necessary to remind the US and the West not to implement a policy of "double standards" in relations with other countries, always siding with Israel in the conflict in the Middle East, and at the same time, it is urgent to find a fair solution to the region's problems.

Anti-missile systems are activated after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, April 14. (Source: Reuters)

Israel's response capabilities

Israel's war cabinet held its second emergency meeting in 24 hours, chaired by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to discuss how to respond to the Iranian attack. Israel will certainly respond, but so far no final decision has been made on how and when.

An attack on Iranian territory cannot be ruled out, but is unlikely because it would be an extremely dangerous option with unpredictable consequences. According to sources in Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, although declaring a strong response to Tehran, is carefully considering the optimal option before making a final decision.

There are many obstacles to Israel's ability to attack Iran militarily due to the lack of consensus among the Israeli people. There is disagreement in the Israeli War Council, and opposition leader Yair Lapid accuses Benjamin Netanyahu of being responsible for Israel's "total loss" of its deterrent and the way it handled the war, leading the country to its current state of crisis.

A new direct conflict with Iran would not be in Israel’s interest. Iran has vowed to “respond more forcefully and extensively within seconds.” On the other hand, this would mean Israel would be forced to fight on multiple fronts. While the conflict in Gaza is not over, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi in Yemen, resistance movements in Iraq, Syria… are ready to join Tehran.

Raz Zimmt, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, told CNN that Israel's priority is to "continue and focus on achieving its main objectives in Gaza, not opening new fronts."

Reaction of countries

Countries are trying to avoid a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. The United States, Israel's strategic ally, has only declared its support for Israel's self-defense. US President Joe Biden has informed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington will not participate in or support any Israeli attack on Iran, and expressed his desire to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means. A new war between Tel Aviv and Tehran will affect the support of US voters for Joe Biden, who is ambitious to be the owner of the White House for another term.

US President Joe Biden wants to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means. (Source: AP)

Israel's Western allies and many countries around the world do not support Israel's attack on Iran. On April 16, the foreign ministers of the European Union (EU) held an extraordinary online meeting to discuss Iran's attack on Israel, expressing the desire for all parties to exercise restraint, prevent the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and continue regional cooperation. The meeting took place ahead of the EU leaders' summit in Brussels, in which the dangerous escalation in the Middle East will be a high-profile issue on the agenda.

Speaking after the meeting, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said Brussels would consider tougher measures against Iran's supply of weapons, including drones, to Russia and its proxy forces in the Middle East.

Arab states have expressed concern about the potential for escalation following the Iranian attack, but have stopped short of condemning it outright. In an interview with CNN 's Becky Anderson, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi appeared to support Iran's view that the attack was in retaliation for Israel's attack on the consular building at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus.

On Iran's side, President Ebrahim Raisi declared: "Iran does not seek to cause tension, the recent attack on Israel was mandatory and limited in scope."

In such a situation, Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu is in a dilemma. He said: “We will respond to Iran, but we need to act wisely and not act emotionally.”

The most viable option now is to impose further sanctions on Iran. In this direction, Israel has asked dozens of Western countries to impose sanctions on Iran. On April 16, Foreign Minister Israel Katz wrote on the social network X: “This morning I sent letters to 32 countries and spoke to dozens of foreign ministers and leading figures in the world, asking for sanctions against Iran’s missile program.”

According to the 2024 Global Firepower Global Military Power Ranking, Iran ranks 14th, while Israel ranks 17th. Opening a new front with Iran is considered a decision that Israel must consider very carefully. A full-scale war would push the already tense Middle East into a dangerous new spiral of violence.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/xung-dot-iran-israel-cuoc-so-gang-len-dinh-diem-goi-ten-doi-dau-quan-su-truc-tiep-268185.html