Washington launches the next phase of modernizing its missile defense system protecting its mainland, but what about Moscow?
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| Northrop Grumman's Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) team has completed preliminary design review, one year ahead of the original contract date. (Source: Northrop Grumman) |
According to an article in the Russian newspaper RIA Novosti , Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin have completed the design of a prototype of a promising interceptor missile. The Pentagon ensures that these missile defense systems can shoot down modern Russian and Chinese intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in flight.
The main component of the US national missile defense system is about 60 Ground-based Missile Defense (GMD) interceptors deployed in Alaska and California. They are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles in mid-flight.
Target identification is carried out by a tracking and early warning radar system. The warhead has kinetic energy, destroying the target with a direct impact. However, tests showed low efficiency - they shot down only half of the decoy missiles.
The Americans have made several attempts to improve their land-based missile defense system. They have studied the Multiple Warhead (MOKV) option, but to no avail. In the middle of the last decade, they launched the Reengineered Kill Vehicle (RKV) program to create a new warhead for interceptor missiles to replace the existing kinetic inter-atmospheric interceptors.
The US has allocated $5.8 billion for this program. Raytheon, Boeing and Lockheed Martin were expected to complete the development process by 2025, but in August 2020, the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) canceled the contract. According to US media, the reason was “product design issues”. The Pentagon then announced that it would no longer invest in upgrading the GMD platform; it needed a fundamentally new interceptor missile.
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| Avangard missile complex. (Source: Russian Ministry of Defense) |
Protection against “Avangard”
The new interceptors have been in service since the mid-2020s and have become the core of the missile defense system over time. The Pentagon decided to continue to modernize them because it suspected that Russian and Chinese ICBMs were too powerful for existing interceptors, first of all the GMD system.
The Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) program was launched in April 2023 when the MDA asked industry to come up with new design options. The estimated cost and timeframe for developing and manufacturing the product is $4.9 billion and five years. In addition to Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, Boeing, the maker of the GMD missile defense system, participated in the bidding process for the project but was not selected by the Pentagon.
The appearance of NGI and its tactical and technical characteristics remain a closely guarded secret. However, the Pentagon has repeatedly stressed that the national missile defense system must be able to intercept the most modern warheads, including hypersonic ones. Presumably, NGI will be designed primarily to target Russia's latest hypersonic missile complex “Avangard”.
It is unclear how the Americans would intercept a maneuvering warhead. The main difference between a missile defense system and an air defense missile is that it targets a point that the target will then pass through. Since the trajectory of the Avangard warhead is extremely unpredictable, Washington’s designers would have to come up with something very special, much more “devious” than simply countering a ballistic missile. However, the capabilities of the Americans should not be underestimated. Developing a promising interceptor would give them access to new technologies and technical solutions.
Today, an effective missile defense system to protect against an enemy with comparable scientific, technical and economic potential is impossible. The strategy of deterrence by threat of retaliation or retaliatory strikes with ballistic missiles is much more reliable. However, it cannot be said that the development of a promising interceptor missile is a waste of money. This allows to achieve new technologies and technical solutions that will be useful in the future.
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| Russia's Avangard is a mobile strategic missile system with intercontinental ballistic missiles. (Source: Sputnik) |
Situational solution
According to Sputnik , while NGI is being developed, Washington plans to strengthen its missile defense system on the mainland with other forces and funds. First of all, it will be warships equipped with the Aegis combat information-control system and the Standard interceptor missile family. Several Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers will be deployed on permanent duty not “somewhere far away in the vast Pacific Ocean” but right off the coast of the United States.
However, the original modifications of the Standard interceptor, which was designed to destroy short- and medium-range missiles, were not capable of intercepting “long-range” ICBMs. Great hopes were placed on the latest modification of the SM-3 Block IIA, one of the most advanced interceptors currently being jointly developed by the US and Japan. During a test in 2020, it shot down a simulated ICBM warhead target in the Hawaiian Islands.
In addition, it is not excluded that the US will deploy the Aegis Ashore version on its territory, namely in Hawaii. The Americans have deployed elements of a similar complex in Poland and Romania. Washington also planned to deploy this system in Japan, but Tokyo refused.
Another layer of national missile defense is the ground-based THAAD short-range missile defense system, deployed in South Korea and Guam. THAAD is supposed to shoot down warheads in their terminal phase of flight. There is no precise information on how many of these systems are needed to protect the entire United States.
Russia's response
The Americans have just begun to create a new missile defense system, while similar work is in full swing in Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry has conducted 11 successful launches of new missiles of the A-235 Nudol system at the Sary-Shagan range in Kazakhstan. Unlike the A-135 system that currently protects Moscow and the central industrial region, Nudol is mobile, meaning it can be deployed anywhere in Russia.
In addition, the S-500 air defense missile system has been put into service by the Russian military, capable of intercepting both aerodynamic and high-speed ballistic targets in dense atmospheric layers and targets at altitudes of more than 200 km. The tactical and technical characteristics of this air defense system as well as information on the number of complexes on combat duty are top secret. However, according to the Russian military, the S-500 has proven highly effective against all types of targets during tests.
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