Kinhtedothi - Changes in the legal framework will help the real estate market in 2025 become more transparent, bringing more opportunities for both investors and businesses... However, to put the new law on real estate into practice requires time and great efforts from all levels and functional sectors.
The following is a conversation between expert Tran Khanh Quang and Kinh te & Do thi Newspaper about measures to develop and improve the real estate market in the new year 2025.
The market enters a new cycle
Looking back at the last quarter of 2024 and the real estate market outlook in 2025, do you think the recovery will continue?
- In 2024, the real estate market closed with many important milestones, opening up prospects for strong and vibrant development in 2025.
The new Land Law, Real Estate Business Law, and Housing Law officially take effect from August 1, 2024 (5 months earlier than the previous National Assembly resolution of January 1, 2025), not only demonstrating the Government's determination to remove legal obstacles and barriers, but also creating confidence in a new growth cycle about to emerge.
According to the history of the cycles, each time the real estate market changes and supplements, there is always a breakthrough in growth. For example, the period 2006 - 2008, the period 2014 - 2020, and now 2024 when 3 sets of laws have just been applied.
The clearest evidence is that when the 2014 Land Law was issued to replace the 2003 Law, it created a big boost in supply and demand for the market during this period.
Similarly, in 2024, with support from legal policies, stable macro-economy, developed infrastructure, etc., the real estate market has truly transformed, creating the foundation for 2025 to start a new cycle - a decade of promising development.
However, the real estate market of 10 years ago, now and in the future will have major differences, which means that the new law not only needs guidance documents for implementation, but also needs a certain delay for the market to "absorb". This is one of the main reasons why the bottleneck of the real estate market still exists.
So, how long do you think this “lag” will last?
- Looking back at the legislative journey of the National Assembly, perhaps no bill has gone through a special process like this Land Law, which went through 4 National Assembly sessions, 2 conferences of full-time National Assembly deputies, 8 meetings of the National Assembly Standing Committee... Therefore, early implementation has created a synchronous legal corridor, liberated land resources, and promoted the development of the real estate market.
However, there will not be a big change in the short term, partly because the parties involved need time to understand the process and adapt to the new law, and partly because of the wait-and-see mentality and consideration of the right time to make a buying and selling decision for both investors and buyers.
In fact, the new law aims to solve long-term problems and sustainable development for the market, so it needs a "delay", but how long is very difficult to determine, it can be 3 years, 5 years or more. At the present time, we can only be sure that the future of the real estate industry in 2025 will be brighter than in 2024, and to aim for sustainable development, the ability to identify opportunities of investors or the innovation efforts of enterprises are not enough. Above all, it needs regulation from the Government.
Perfecting institutions, promoting transparent markets
That means the Government needs to have measures to develop and improve the real estate market in the new year 2025, sir?
- Yes, as I said above, 2025 with the completion of the guiding documents of the 3 new laws will be the basis for accurately assessing the impact, especially the transparency of information to help "stabilize" real estate prices. This means that the growth of real estate segments in 2025 will be proportional to the transparency of information.
For the above scenario to happen smoothly, there needs to be synchronous and effective solutions from both the government and businesses. In particular, reforming administrative procedures and creating favorable conditions for businesses is the most urgent. Once administrative procedures related to real estate investment need to be strongly reformed, reducing complexity and waiting time, it will help real estate businesses quickly implement projects, while increasing the supply of housing, especially social housing and affordable housing.
Once housing supply is available, the next step is to implement financial support packages, reduce home loan interest rates, especially for low-income earners, to help them access housing more easily.
At the same time, it is also necessary to soon have a national land data system with full information from planning, legal status, technical records, transaction fluctuations, with the ability to update continuously and accurately. In particular, it is also a tool to measure market demand in 2025.
In addition, it must be emphasized that in the market mechanism, investment and speculation are both normal factors. However, it is still necessary to have reasonable tax policies to limit speculation and ensure sustainable market development. In particular, clarify regulations related to land prices and real estate values to avoid virtual land "fever".
If the above solutions are guaranteed, 2025 promises to be the year in which real estate trading activities converge all the elements: public, transparent, synchronous and suitable for real life.
With these shares, do you believe that the "golden" period of real estate will return in 2025?
- It is undeniable that the real estate market in 2025 will face unprecedented opportunities when there are favorable conditions in both macro and micro aspects, but for the market to return to the vibrant period like the "golden" period of 2018 - 2019, it may take a few more years.
Of course, real estate in 2025 will still be a new, transparent "game" with many opportunities but more fierce and competitive. This requires businesses to make more efforts, be more flexible, agile, innovative and creative, not only in choosing to bring suitable product lines to the market but also in marketing and sales strategies.
As for individual investors, I believe that the vast majority of them understand that real estate is the best investment channel in the past 20 years and at least in the next 10 years, so whether the "golden" period returns or not in 2025, it will not affect their judgment and investment decisions.
However, the advice for investors is to prepare good resources for cash flow, carefully research prices, planning information, and development orientation of the area. Along with that, promptly grasp the State's policies and the world economic situation to have appropriate and quick choices, not to miss opportunities.
I believe that in the second quarter of 2025, the real estate market will clearly improve. Investor sentiment will be relieved and spread and resonate in all other areas. That is when the real estate market will recover and begin a sustainable development cycle.
Thank you very much!
It is forecasted that real estate investment capital flows will improve in the new year 2025. At this time, the Vietnamese real estate market will have the participation of many large global investment organizations.
This is also the time when the market is expected to increase transactions and improve buyer sentiment, but it still needs more time and a recovery cycle, which may start from the second quarter of 2025.
In 2025, the real estate market is expected to adjust but continue to record slight growth. Central areas of major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City may continue to maintain high prices due to the scarcity of land and strong demand for housing.
However, suburban areas and satellite cities will begin to become bright spots for investment as infrastructure improves and land prices in these areas have more room for growth.
Real Estate Expert Tran Khanh Quang
Source: https://kinhtedothi.vn/cuoc-choi-buoc-vao-chu-ky-moi-minh-bach-hon.html
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