The return of Donald Trump not only marks a turning point in American politics but also promises to have a profound impact on international relations, especially with the Southern Hemisphere.
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| With the motto of "America First", the term "Trump 2.0" can bring profound and comprehensive impacts to the Southern Hemisphere. (Source: South China Morning Post) |
The US presidential election that has attracted international attention has come to an end with Donald Trump’s successful “return” to the White House against his opponent Kamala Harris. This historic return promises to have many impacts on the world, especially the situation in Ukraine, the Gaza Strip, and the Indo-Pacific region. Notably, the focus of recent academic discussion has been the impact of President-elect Trump’s term on the Southern Hemisphere.
Emerging powers from the Global South, such as Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia and South Africa, are playing an increasingly important role in world politics. The recent BRICS Summits (Kazan 2024) and the G20 (New Delhi 2023) are concrete evidence of the influence of the “rising stars” of the Global South in restructuring the multilateral system, making the superpowers no longer the only driving force in international relations.
During the Trump 1.0 term, the Southern Hemisphere has been under pressure to keep its distance from China. New Delhi has become part of the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy through the Quad mechanism. Historically, New Delhi and Beijing have had many difficult-to-resolve disagreements, and border tensions between the two countries have often caused geopolitical and security turmoil in the South Asian region.
A second Trump term could lead to diplomatic tensions, especially with Mexico, given his confrontational approach to immigration. If Mexico does not align its interests with the United States, it could face serious geopolitical instability. If the new Washington administration reduces its security commitment to Mexico, the Latin American country will need to increase its defense self-sufficiency.
A Trump 2.0 presidency could spark economic turmoil in the Southern Hemisphere due to President-elect Trump’s protectionist stance. During his campaign, Trump mentioned increasing tariffs on imports into the US, which could affect developing countries, while also potentially causing labor and market instability, especially in Asia and Latin America. Trump also declared his opposition to electric vehicles (EVs) and vowed to repeal mandatory EV regulations on his first day in office.
Mr Trump has promised to impose tariffs of around 60% on Chinese imports, remove Beijing’s most-favored-nation (MFN) status and possibly restart the US-China trade war. If Beijing is removed from the MFN list, tensions between the two powers could prompt companies to shift production to other countries in the southern hemisphere.
If the US President-elect imposes interest rates on international imports, the result will be inflation. To deal with this problem, Washington will need to adjust fiscal policy to increase interest rates. This could disrupt global trade flows, because the US dollar is currently considered a measure of world economic growth.
As the saying goes: “When the US sneezes, the world catches the cold”, Mr. Trump's return to the White House could trigger an undercurrent of volatility in global markets, as the US President-elect is expected to reverse the management style of his predecessor Joe Biden and re-apply the policies of his first term.
Promoting the slogan “Make America Great Again” and the principle of “America First”, Washington may reduce funding for international organizations, as well as put allies such as the European Union facing economic and political challenges.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/ong-donald-trump-tai-xuat-cuc-dien-nam-ban-ca-u-co-da-o-chieu-u-294681.html
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