The current economic and trade cooperation mechanisms between Vietnam and the US are being applied relatively effectively, positively, proactively, and meeting the tasks set forth in the bilateral economic and trade relationship.
This is the assessment of Commercial Counselor, Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US Do Ngoc Hung in an interview with VNA reporters in the area about the results of Vietnam-US economic diplomacy in 2024 and prospects for bilateral trade cooperation in 2025.
According to Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, in 2024, the internal political situation in the US will have many fluctuations as this is the year of the presidential election. Most of the policies of President Joe Biden's administration are aimed at domestic manufacturing and workers. After the election, Mr. Donald Trump was elected President for a second term and will take office in January 2025. The US security, economic and foreign policies in President Trump's new term are predicted to have great impacts, even changing and reversing the political, economic and financial situation in the world and the region.
Regarding trade, according to data released by the US Department of Commerce on December 5, the total import and export turnover of US goods in the first 10 months of 2024 reached 4,432 billion USD, an increase of 2.7% over the same period in 2023, of which imports reached 2,708 billion USD, exports 1,724 billion USD and trade deficit reached nearly 1,000 billion USD.
According to Mr. Peter Navarro, who was appointed as the senior advisor on the US economy and production, President-elect Trump received high support from the Republican Party on measures to deal with inflation, trade deficit, handle immigration issues, protect workers from unfair trade practices, handle social, educational, health issues... Accordingly, the viewpoint calls on Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Act (USRTA) allowing the US to increase taxes to reciprocate with countries that impose higher taxes. The law aims to force trading partners to reduce taxes with the US and remove non-tariff barriers or the US to increase taxes corresponding to the increase of trading partners. According to calculations, with the first scenario, the US can reduce the trade deficit to 58.3 billion USD. With the second scenario, the US will reduce the trade deficit at a higher level. According to Mr. Navarro, if the Patriot Act (USRTA) comes into effect, the countries and territories prioritized in the negotiation list include: India, China (group 1), then the European Union (group 2), and in group 3 are Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan (China).
Through discussions with law firms, former government officials, as well as internal information from the Capitol, US officials highly appreciate Vietnam through upgrading the comprehensive strategic partnership, which is increasingly deepening. Both sides consider each other as partners of top strategic importance, with increasingly significant positions and roles in the region and internationally.
According to statistics from the US International Trade Commission (USITC), total two-way trade turnover in the first 10 months of the year reached 112 billion USD, Vietnam's trade surplus reached 102 billion USD, up more than 26% over the same period. US export turnover to Vietnam reached 10 billion USD, up nearly 30%.
Currently, the cooperation mechanism and framework between Vietnam and the US have been built at many different levels and degrees (such as multilateral cooperation at the World Trade Organization WTO or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum APEC...; bilateral cooperation such as the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement - TIFA, Bilateral Trade Agreement - BTA...). In addition, Vietnam and the US also have many cooperation channels from ministerial-level agencies, inter-ministerial working groups, industry associations, enterprises; cooperation and exchange mechanisms on energy; economic cooperation mechanisms chaired by the Ministry of Science and Investment...
Based on the synthesis of import data from the US Customs and Border Protection, it can be seen that Vietnam has products with competitive advantages when accounting for a significant proportion of imports. In addition, for potential product groups, Vietnam has many opportunities to increase exports when the growth rate of product groups is very high while the proportion of Vietnam's imports in the US import structure is still very modest. This shows that Vietnam has opportunities to increase exports focusing on product groups with competitive advantages and potential.
According to many experts, 2025 may continue to be a difficult year for the US economy, with growth rates likely to be low and inflation remaining high. In addition, inflation has not yet returned to expected levels, and energy fluctuations are continuing as conflicts around the world continue to occur. In addition, many analyses show that the consumption trend as in the past despite inflation will be difficult to maintain for long and Americans will soon tighten spending if the situation does not improve.
In addition to the long-term economic and trade cooperation goals, the Trade Office said that the main immediate task is to pay special attention to solving the trade deficit (although this basically reflects the foreign trade structure of each country, which is complementary and less directly competitive) and the labor issue. These factors may lead to the US Department of Commerce initiating an investigation into trade defense measures against dumping, anti-subsidy, and fraud of origin of goods.... Enterprises also need to pay attention to the origin of imported raw materials for production and export, focusing on importing raw materials from the US; continue to improve technology, improve quality, and reduce costs to gain a competitive advantage (even in the case of being taxed). The implementation of a harmonious, sustainable, and mutually beneficial trade balance is becoming increasingly urgent. Vietnam pledges to continue opening its market, speed up the resolution of recommendations from the US business community, demonstrating our commitment to maintaining bilateral trade and investment relations, in which, with a view on traditional energy, cooperation in rare earth mining will open up more room for cooperation between the two countries, especially when looking forward to the 30th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations in 2025.
The US is Vietnam’s largest export market for agricultural, forestry and fishery products. Therefore, trade in agricultural products and other agricultural products is expected to continue to create momentum for the growth of Vietnam’s export turnover to the US market in 2025.
According to VNA
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/tin-tuc/co-che-hop-tac-kinh-te-thuong-mai-viet-nam-my-phat-huy-hieu-qua-trong-nam-2024/20241223084619401
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