Experts predict GDP at highest 6%
At the plenary session of the Vietnam Economic Forum 2023 on the afternoon of September 19, experts mentioned this year's economic growth scenario.
Dr. Can Van Luc, chief economist of BIDV Bank, presented three economic growth scenarios for 2023. All three forecast that GDP growth in 2023 will be lower than the 6.5% target set by the Government.
Specifically, in the baseline scenario, GDP is forecast to grow by 5.2-5.5%. However, if the global economy declines more severely and Vietnam takes less advantage of opportunities from new growth drivers, GDP is forecast to grow by only 4.4-4.5%.
If the world economy recovers soon and new growth drivers (digital transformation, regional connectivity, promoting the two main drivers of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City) are fully utilized, economic growth this year could reach 5.5-6%.
However, the expert said that if Vietnam can better consolidate existing growth drivers and better exploit new growth drivers, the growth rate could be higher.
For 2024-2025, according to the baseline scenario, the world economic situation is forecast to gradually recover, inflation will return to below 3% in 2025, at which time Vietnam's economic growth is forecast to reach about 6% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.
Also forecasting GDP growth, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, Lecturer at the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management Vietnam, said that achieving a growth rate of 6.5% in 2023 is extremely difficult, if not impossible, when the last two quarters of the year must increase by 9% compared to the same period.
According to him, all three current growth drivers of the Vietnamese economy, namely domestic consumption, investment and export, are not moving towards green transformation and circular economy.
Mr. Thanh forecasts that if public investment disbursement reaches 95% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister, this year's GDP growth rate could reach about 5.5-5.8%.
National Assembly Chairman: Need to "renew" old growth drivers
In his closing remarks, National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue affirmed that the forum spent a lot of time focusing not only on topical, short-term socio-economic issues but also on large, comprehensive issues. New trends shaping the world, new drivers and directions for growth and sustainable development in Vietnam.
The National Assembly Chairman affirmed that in the short, medium and long term, Vietnam needs to focus on maximizing its "internal strength", in which it should promote and attach importance to endogenous capacity; and take advantage of and effectively exploit "external strength".
Creating new growth drivers is the “key” to adapting, coping and developing in a new context of many fluctuations and increasing risks.
Summarizing some of the main contents that the delegates focused on discussing, the National Assembly Chairman stated that after the Covid-19 pandemic, on the road to recovery, most of the world's economies are facing great challenges. The National Assembly and the Government of Vietnam have issued and implemented drastic, timely, practical policies and solutions, including unprecedented ones, over the past 2.5 years since the 13th National Party Congress.
Vietnam still stands firm, basically steadfastly overcoming all difficulties and challenges, achieving many important and quite comprehensive results, recognized internationally and domestically.
The economy has maintained its growth momentum and remains a “bright spot” in the “gray picture” of the global economy.
However, from the fourth quarter of 2022, Vietnam's economic growth will slow down, making it difficult to achieve the 2023 target set by the National Assembly Resolution.
It is worth noting that all three current growth drivers of the economy are facing structural difficulties, due to the lack of long-term orientation and timely, feasible specific solutions towards green transformation, reducing energy intensity, carbon emissions and circular economy while always adhering to sustainable development goals.
“The forum agreed and emphasized that it is necessary to “renew” old growth drivers, traditional growth drivers on the basis of promulgating and implementing policy and legal frameworks to encourage behavioral changes in consumption, production and investment,” said the National Assembly Chairman.
According to him, at the Forum, many important and practical policy suggestions were made. Accordingly, regarding the creation of new growth drivers for the economy, delegates made many policy suggestions, focusing on five main drivers: promoting regional connectivity, recovery and growth of economic locomotives; developing the private economic sector and domestic enterprises; promoting the digital economy and green economy; perfecting and improving the quality of economic institutions and enhancing Vietnam's position in the global value chain and enhancing the self-reliance and self-reliance of the economy.
In addition, there are policy suggestions on strengthening the development of the private economic sector, applying new technologies and ideas, and creating new momentum. There needs to be a breakthrough in mechanisms and policies to promote the private economic sector to develop more strongly and sustainably.
Resolutely remove major obstacles and barriers facing domestic enterprises today, especially in terms of administrative procedures, output markets, access to capital (especially access and capital absorption capacity) and labor.
Strengthen the effective implementation of business support programs such as support for participation in value chains, digital transformation, productivity improvement, innovation, creative startups, legal support, etc.
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