What is the forecast for Vietnam's stock market when Donald Trump takes office as US president?

This week, international financial markets, including Vietnam, will focus on the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump and the roadmap for implementing proposed tariff policies.

President-elect Donald Trump - Photo: AFP

According to experts, concerns about risks surrounding Mr. Trump 's policies have partly affected the stock market's performance over the past two months. Therefore, unless there is a major shock or change, there will not be too many major market disruptions in the coming trading week.

Donald Trump event affects global psychology and capital flows

* Mr. Doan Minh Tuan - Head of FIDT Research and Investment Department: - The global financial market continues to be under pressure from the strengthening of the USD (DXY approaching 110 points) and expectations that USD interest rates will remain high as the Fed has shown no signs of lowering interest rates in the first half of 2025. Along with that, the inauguration of Mr. Donald Trump on January 20 could increase policy risks, affecting global market sentiment and capital flows. The unpredictability of Mr. Trump's policies has caused capital flows to take refuge in the USD, pushing the DXY index up sharply, reaching the highest risk level, approaching 110 points. The positive US economic outlook has reinforced expectations that US interest rates will remain high in the long term. This has also pushed the yield on 10-year US government bonds to a high level. In addition, the market believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates in the first half of 2025 and can only cut once in the second half of 2025. This causes USD interest rates to remain high. In Vietnam, exchange rate pressure has cooled down thanks to the end-of-year USD liquidity demand, helping the VN-Index react positively at the support zone of 1,220 and accumulate in the short term around 1,250 - 1,270. However, the current recovery is mainly technical with low liquidity and timid cash flow psychology.

Risks surrounding Trump's policies have been reflected in the market

* Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy - VNDirect Securities Analysis: - This week, the international financial market will focus on the inauguration of President-elect Donal Trump and the roadmap for implementing proposed policies on tariffs, immigration policies and corporate income tax policies. In general, we believe that the risks surrounding Trump's policies have had a major impact on market developments over the past two months.

Therefore, unless there is a major shock or change in these proposed policies, I do not think there will be any major market disruption in the coming trading week. Regarding domestic developments, I expect the recovery trend to be maintained in the last trading week of the Year of the Dragon, thanks to the momentum from the fourth quarter business results announcement season. We forecast that the profits of enterprises listed on the HoSE can maintain a net profit growth rate of over 20% in the fourth quarter, which will help improve stock valuations and promote investment cash flow to return. At the same time, exchange rate pressure may continue to cool down and help untie the "bottleneck" of market sentiment. However, it is necessary to reduce leverage and margin when keeping margin status through the Lunar New Year may not be the optimal choice.

Scenario with Vietnam when Mr. Trump takes office

* Mr. Truong Thai Dat, Director of Analysis at DSC Securities: - We believe that the impacts of the Trump 2.0 policy will be noticeable from the end of 2025, because the time to issue a new policy in the US is quite long. The time is usually at least 6-12 months from the date of initiation of the investigation to the policy being issued. We assume that the Trump administration will apply a 60% tariff on imported goods from China and 10-20% on countries that do not have an FTA with the US, including Vietnam. Vietnam will not be subject to additional tariffs, however, as one of the five countries with a large trade surplus with the US, this country may require Vietnam to increase imports of technology and energy products to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. This scenario has the highest probability of occurring. Vietnam in this scenario will still benefit when the trade relationship between the two sides is maintained stably; The trend of shifting production to Vietnam, as well as the opportunity to access many technology and energy products from the US. However, the downside is that Vietnam may have to reduce benefits from some key export industries, and the pressure to balance trade may cause difficulties for small and medium enterprises.

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Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-viet-nam-duoc-du-bao-ra-sao-khi-ong-donald-trump-nham-chuc-tong-thong-my-20250120094405675.htm