Domestic individual investors were the only group to net sell last week, with nearly VND2,200 billion. This move shows the cautious, somewhat negative sentiment of individual investors in the face of year-end stock market risks.
The stock market is unlikely to surpass the peak of 1,300 in 2024 - Photo: QUANG DINH
Cash flow is circulating and diverging, making it difficult for stock indexes to surpass the peak of 1,300.
* Mr. Do Bao Ngoc - Deputy General Director of Kien Thiet Securities:
- There are only two sessions left until the end of 2024, so it is difficult for cash flow to have a sudden change, and it is difficult for the index to break out at this time. It is expected that at the beginning of the new year, with the story of Q4 business results and improvements in the upgrading process, cash flow into stocks will be better activated.
Mr. Do Bao Ngoc
Recently, the market has been strongly differentiated, with money flowing continuously. After a period of "pouring" into small and medium-sized stocks, last week it flowed strongly into large-cap stocks.
As for bank stocks, the strong increase last week may be due to the high proportion of this group in the portfolio of investment funds. When the funds have finished disbursing, the possibility of further increase is still a question mark. Because the outlook for this group is quite pressured by the end of 2024, which is also the time when Circular 02 expires, bad debt will increase and profits will be affected.
Overall, the market lacks momentum, so it is not strong enough to push the whole group up. Regarding investment strategy, investors can pay attention to the short-term bottoming ability of potential groups this week to take advantage of opportunities for business prospects in the new year.
Individuals were the only group net sellers, showing caution.
• Mr. Doan Minh Tuan - Head of Research and Investment Department, FIDT:
- Last week, VN-Index still recorded some positive signals from the banking group, helping the VN-Index reach 1,275 points, approaching the resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300.
Here, the strategic question arises again: Will VN-Index reach 1,300 and break out? We maintain a cautious stance to answer this question.
The current global risks and exchange rate pressure, the State Bank tightening liquidity are not good conditions to expect an overly positive scenario. The context of high market risks is not suitable for the VN-Index to easily surpass the 3-year peak of "1,300".
Mr. Doan Minh Tuan
In addition, the differentiation between industries is clear, only banking and public investment are showing positive results, while other industries such as real estate, securities, steel, etc. are under pressure to adjust.
Last week was also considered a "rest" week for foreign investors, as selling pressure from this group almost did not appear. Meanwhile, the self-employed group had a strong week of net buying, focusing on important sectors such as banking, real estate, information technology and food.
On the contrary, domestic individuals were the only group to net sell, with a value of up to nearly VND 2,200 billion, marking the strongest and only week of net selling in December. This move shows the cautious, somewhat negative sentiment of individual investors in the face of risk factors such as market liquidity and exchange rate pressure.
Overall, for the market to move towards a more stable and positive trend, it is necessary to wait for a clear reversal from global pressure factors.
Exchange rate pressure is still "lurking" and the market lacks supportive information
• Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department, VNDirect Securities:
- Stock indices recovered positively last week as recent risks temporarily eased. In particular, the increase in the USD index (DXY) slowed down last week, helping the interbank USD/VND exchange rate "temporarily cool down" and fall below the intervention threshold of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh
This created conditions for the State Bank to inject a large amount of liquidity, about more than VND 70,000 billion, into the banking system from December 23 to 26, reversing the net withdrawal of nearly VND 71,500 billion in the previous week.
In response to that development, many bank stocks witnessed impressive price increases and were the main driving force behind the upward trend of stock indices.
At the same time, public investment stocks also "made waves" as investors expected the Government to boost public investment next year to boost economic growth.
However, in general, the price increase only occurred "locally" in some industry groups and the spread was not high when the cash flow in the market still showed no signs of strong participation.
Currently, the probability of the market breaking through the 1,300 zone soon is not high, especially in the context of exchange rate pressure still "waiting" and the market lacking strong enough supporting information.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-moi-hai-phien-nua-het-nam-ca-nhan-la-nhom-duy-nhat-ban-rong-20241230091818418.htm
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