The stock market is gradually easing pressure as the exchange rate story and foreign net selling are showing signs of reversal. In addition, in the last month of the year, more than VND330,000 billion in credit will be pumped into the economy.
The stock market is gradually more optimistic towards the end of the year - Photo: QUANG DINH
VN-Index closed the 49th trading week of this year at 1,270 points, up nearly 20 points compared to last week with a sharp increase in average liquidity.
* Mr. Doan Minh Tuan - Head of FIDT Analysis Department:
Credit growth positive at year-end, two reversal signals appear
- The two biggest short-term pressures on the stock market are exchange rates and foreign net selling, which are showing more optimistic signs of reversal.
This could be the time for new foreign capital to return to look for new opportunities, especially with the positive outlook that the Vietnamese stock market will be upgraded to a market by FTSE in the upcoming March 2025 period.
As the risks passed, market confidence began to improve rapidly, and there were signs that large cash flows were returning to the market.
In addition, credit has shown positive signs in the final period of 2024. As of December 7, credit growth reached 12.5%, a sharp increase in the last 2 months of the year. Thus, credit increased by more than 450,000 billion VND in just over 1 month.
According to the 15% annual credit growth plan, more than VND330,000 billion will be pumped out in the last month of the year. It is estimated that nearly VND800,000 billion in credit is expected to be disbursed in the last two months of the year.
For the base case, we believe the recent deep market correction has largely reflected the “hypothetical risks” in the medium term.
* Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of individual client analysis, Yuanta Securities Vietnam:
The story of upgrading the stock market will attract cash flow
- The biggest risk recently was the exchange rate. However, this pressure has cooled down somewhat as the USD's upward momentum weakened along with the US government bond interest rate also weakened.
The State Bank has also resumed intervening in the foreign exchange market with a number of recent treasury bill issuances.
The liquidity risk of the stock market has also been somewhat resolved last week as investors have not stood on the sidelines and are also less pessimistic.
Currently, the speculative cash flow of foreign capital has almost completely withdrawn and only strategic shareholders remain. There is not much room left to sell.
There is a high possibility that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates in December, thereby further strengthening expectations that foreign investors will return to net buying in the Vietnamese market.
With the stock market upgrade story, we missed the opportunity last October. In the review in March next year, we have a high chance of being considered for an upgrade by FTSE. This is a positive topic attracting both domestic and foreign money.
* Mr. Barry Weisblatt - Director of VNDirect Securities Analysis:
Attractive valuation of Vietnam stock market
- The valuation of the Vietnamese stock market is attractive. Accordingly, the trailing P/E (price to earnings ratio) of the VN-Index is currently discounted by more than 10.3% compared to the 5-year average. The market has not yet properly assessed the prospect of 4th quarter profit growth of over 20% according to our forecast.
Additionally, the market has also largely priced in the risks of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies, which has pushed the DXY index to 107.
The Fed's continued interest rate cuts at its upcoming December meeting could cool down the DXY index, thereby reducing pressure on the VND exchange rate and creating conditions for the State Bank to focus more on supporting systemic liquidity and credit growth.
Although economic growth and the profit picture of listed companies have improved significantly, it can be seen that market valuations have not fully reflected this, mainly due to the impact of huge net selling by foreign investors since the beginning of the year, increased exchange rate pressure and higher liquidity stress in the final months of this year.
Given the current valuation and macroeconomic backdrop, we believe this is the right time for long-term investors to proactively allocate capital and accumulate stocks to build a portfolio for 2025.
However, as the market has yet to establish a clear uptrend, excessive use of financial leverage can be counterproductive and increase risks.
Investors are advised to adopt a conservative capital allocation strategy.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-moi-330-000-ti-dong-bom-ra-hai-ap-luc-lon-nhat-dang-dao-chieu-20241209093540368.htm
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