The stock market has a positive start to 2024, with the VN-Index recording a 3% increase in January. This is the third consecutive month of increase for the main index amid a positive global stock market. Cash flow is concentrated in the banking sector, with significant support from the return of foreign investors and a 22% growth in profits in the fourth quarter of 2023.
According to the analysis team of Dragon Capital Securities Company (VDSC), the market will temporarily enter a period of information void after the fourth quarter 2023 business results reporting season. Along with the effects of the Lunar New Year holiday, VDSC does not expect the market to fluctuate strongly in February. However, the flow of information about the General Meeting of Shareholders season with new business plans for 2024 will likely help the market become more vibrant in the second half of February. On the contrary, the risk of a deep decline in the market is limited, thanks to the relatively cheap valuation of large-cap industries. The net selling trend of foreign investors may temporarily end, the amount of first-time home deposits is waiting to re-enter the market.
For February, VDSC forecasts the expected fluctuation range of VN-Index to be 1,160 - 1,200 points.
“After the fourth quarter 2023 business results with 12 consecutive months of profit growth reaching 7% compared to the end of the third quarter 2023, there are signs that business activities of enterprises have begun to recover since mid-2023. Expectations for the effectiveness of monetary policy easing and increased public investment disbursement in 2023 will be more clearly demonstrated in 2024.
With the estimated P/E of the entire market at 13.6, lower than the level approaching 14 at the end of the year, the market is expected to be under less pressure from foreign investors, opening up opportunities for investors to accumulate leading stocks with high recovery potential. In the short term, investors can flexibly buy and sell stocks such as VNM, QNS and LHG" - VDSC said.
According to experts from Mirae Asset Securities Company, the risks that investors need to monitor include: uncertainty about the timing and scale of the FED's interest rate cuts in 2024; the impact of high global interest rates on debt restructuring, business activities, and consumption; the impact of the prolonged difficulties of the Chinese real estate industry; low growth risks in Europe; geopolitical risks, especially the impact of the Red Sea incident on global inflation, and policy changes after elections in major countries.
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