Real estate, construction, and securities lending still pose risks

ANTD.VN - The State Bank has just announced the results of a survey on credit trends of credit institutions and foreign bank branches in Vietnam (TCTD).

Banks continue to loosen credit standards

According to the survey results, in the last 6 months of 2024, credit institutions said that they met the overall loan demand of customers at a higher rate than in the first 6 months of 2024. The rate of credit institutions assessing that they met the loan demand at a high level (from 75% or more) of the group of 14 key commercial banks in this period continued to be 100%.

To facilitate businesses and people to access credit capital, in the last 6 months of 2024, in general, credit institutions will continue to have a tendency to slightly loosen credit standards similar to the first 6 months of 2024. In particular, the tendency to slightly loosen credit standards continues to be recorded in the following areas: Loans for investment in high-tech applications; loans for investment in supporting industries; loans for home purchase, processing and manufacturing industries; loans for import-export business; loans for investment in tourism business; loans for investment in logistics services.

Credit institutions said the main basis for the trend of slightly "loosening" credit standards in the last 6 months of 2024 and expected in the first 6 months of 2025 is based on the assessment of the positive macroeconomic outlook and the positive impact of the Government's economic development orientation/management policies and the Government/SBV's credit orientation/management policies.

It is expected that for the whole year of 2025, credit institutions will continue to maintain or slightly loosen their overall credit standards for all customer groups, with priority given to loosening credit standards for corporate customers.

Banks forecast to continue to slightly loosen lending criteria in 2025

According to the assessment of credit institutions, the overall credit demand of customers in the last 6 months of 2024 and the whole year of 2024 will improve more strongly than in the first 6 months of 2024 and the whole year of 2023, but will still be lower than in 2022. It is expected that in the first 6 months of 2025 and the whole year of 2025, credit demand will continue to increase for all sectors, subjects, currencies and terms.

Among the four main sectors surveyed, in this survey, the industrial and construction sector has the highest rate of credit institutions forecasting the highest increase in loan demand in 2025, followed by the demand for loans for living and consumption and the demand for loans for trade and services; then the sector of loans for agricultural, forestry and fishery development.

In 2024, Wholesale and retail; Import and export; Loans for living needs or consumer loans; Processing and manufacturing industry are the 4 sectors chosen by many credit institutions as the most driving force for credit growth.

Entering 2025, wholesale and retail; Import and export; Loans for living needs or consumer loans continue to be the 3 sectors with the highest expected credit growth rate. However, the fourth sector is expected to be Steel and other metals, replacing the Processing and Manufacturing Industry sector in 2024.

Real estate, construction, and securities are still areas with potential risks.

According to the survey results, credit risks of loans assessed by credit institutions will continue to increase in 2024, but the increase is considered to be much slower than in 2023. Credit institutions forecast that the overall risk level in 2025 will not change compared to 2024.

In 2025, credit risks in 10/16 surveyed sectors are expected to decrease by credit institutions (agricultural, forestry and fishery development; processing and manufacturing industry; high-tech investment loans...).

However, credit institutions are concerned that risks may increase slightly in 5/16 surveyed areas, including construction; real estate business; lending for financial, banking, and insurance businesses; and lending for securities investment and trading, of which the 2 areas assessed to have the highest potential risks are lending for real estate and construction business investment.

These are also areas where credit institutions are expected to continue tightening lending, but the level of tightening may be narrower than in the last 6 months of 2024.

In the second half of 2024, credit institutions have made efforts to further narrow the gap between lending rates and average funding costs, while still “slightly tightening” lending terms and conditions for corporate and retail customers to better manage risks in the context of increasing customer risks. Credit institutions expect to keep overall lending terms and conditions stable for corporate customers and loosen them for retail customers in the first half of 2025.

Source: https://www.anninhthudo.vn/cho-vay-bat-dong-san-xay-dung-chung-khoan-van-tiem-an-rui-ro-post601206.antd