NATO is having a "headache" finding a candidate for the position of Secretary General when Mr. Jens Stoltenberg is about to step down next September. In the current context, it is not easy for the organization to find a name that satisfies all members.
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| Flags of member countries outside NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. (Source: Reuters) |
Will there be the first female secretary general?
The race to become the next leader of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is heating up. But it is a race that has largely taken place out of public view, and it is unclear who the potential candidates will be.
Jens Stoltenberg, the Norwegian secretary general of the transatlantic military alliance, will step down at the end of September after nine years in the post.
Many alliance members want Mr Stoltenberg's succession to take place before or during the NATO summit in Lithuania in mid-July.
Of course, this does not give NATO’s 31 member states, from the US to newcomers Finland and Türkiye, much time to reach the consensus needed to choose a new leader. They may also ask Mr Stoltenberg to extend his term for a fourth time.
Whoever takes over at this critical juncture will face the dual challenge of keeping allies on the front lines supporting Ukraine while guarding against any risk of escalation that would push NATO into direct conflict with Russia.
Last week, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said he was eyeing the job, but with some governments pushing for NATO to have its first female secretary-general, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen could be a strong candidate.
Although the NATO secretary general position is a specific and public job, the competition for the position is extremely opaque, taking place mainly in consultations between leaders and diplomats.
Those consultations continue until all NATO members agree to a consensus. Leaders will be looking for a “skilled” politician, communicator and diplomat, said Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official who served in the alliance for 38 years.
Many diplomats believe that British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is not suitable for the job, despite his prestige and respect within the alliance. Some members want to choose a woman for the position of NATO leader.
Many also want the new NATO secretary general to be a former prime minister or president to ensure the leader has political influence at the highest level, like Mr Stoltenberg, 64, who was prime minister of Norway.
Some members, particularly France, want a candidate from a European Union (EU) country, hoping for closer cooperation between NATO and the EU.
Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen meets all of the above criteria. According to NATO diplomats, Ms. Frederiksen is a name being seriously considered behind the scenes.
Ms Frederiksen was first mentioned as a possible candidate for the post of secretary general of the alliance in a report by Norwegian newspaper VG last month, and again made headlines this week when the White House announced that she would visit US President Joe Biden in early June.
Speaking to reporters in Copenhagen last week, the Danish Prime Minister dismissed speculation that the visit was aimed at the upcoming NATO “race”: “I am not running for any job.”
Traditionally, the position has gone to a European, but any serious candidate would need support from Washington.
The Biden administration has yet to select a nominee and top aides are still “having heated discussions,” a source familiar with the matter said.
A US State Department spokesman said it was “too early to speculate on who Washington will back.”
A representative from an Eastern European country is needed
Ms Frederiksen, 45, a member of the Social Democratic Party, became Denmark's youngest prime minister in 2019. She was praised for her crisis management during the Covid-19 pandemic and was elected for a second term last year.
The leader would have to give up her position as Danish Prime Minister if she took the NATO job, which political commentators say would push her government to the brink of collapse.
Of course, the campaign for a seat in NATO will not be smooth sailing either.
Denmark has fallen short of the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defence (currently at just 1.38%), despite Ms Frederiksen's pledge to accelerate efforts to reach this target.
Some allies also believe it is time for the position to go to an Eastern European country for the first time, especially as the conflict in Ukraine has made the region more important to NATO.
If Ms Frederiksen is elected, she will be the third consecutive NATO leader from a Nordic country.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, President of the European Commission (EC) Ursula von der Leyen (German) and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland are also "potential candidates" being mentioned by diplomats and the press.
Other popular names include veteran Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. However, Mr Rutte has said he does not want the job, while Mr Sanchez is busy with a general election later this year.
Some diplomats say many of the controversial candidates may not be acceptable to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who has not been shy about blocking NATO approval. Turkey, along with Hungary, has so far refused to open the door to Swedish membership.
The lack of clear candidates with broad support increases the likelihood that Mr Stoltenberg will extend his term, even until another NATO summit in 2024.
Mr. Stoltenberg said he did not want to stay longer, but left the door open for a response if asked.
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