| Commodity market today, March 28: Selling pressure dominates the world raw material commodity market Commodity market today, March 29: Investment cash flow to the agricultural product market increases dramatically |
Data from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) shows that at the end of the last trading week of March (March 25-29), buying power completely dominated 3 out of 4 groups of raw materials being traded globally at MXV, including Industry, Energy and Agricultural products; supporting the MXV-Index to continue to increase by 1.08% to 2,237 points. The average trading value of the entire Exchange reached nearly VND 5,700 billion per day, 15% lower than the previous week.
Thus, at the end of the first quarter of this year, this commodity index increased by nearly 6% compared to the beginning of the year, showing the upward trend of many important commodities. In particular, cocoa continued to be the commodity leading the market trend when it closed up 9.25%, setting a new historical peak. Coffee and sugar prices maintained a strong upward momentum throughout March, closing the week with an increase of 2-3%. Oil prices also reached a 5-month high after the strong increase last week.
Cocoa prices up 128% in Q1
Cocoa prices ended the week at a new historical high of $9,766 per tonne, after rising 9.25%. Compared to the beginning of this year, cocoa prices have now increased by 128%. MXV said that severe supply shortages in major producing countries continue to be the main factor driving strong buying power for cocoa.
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| Cocoa prices hit a new historical peak of $9,766/ton |
According to the Ivory Coast government, from the beginning of the crop to March 24, the amount of cocoa transported to ports in this country has decreased by 28% compared to the same period last season, reaching 1.28 million tons. Along with that, Ivory Coast's cocoa production in the 23/24 crop year is estimated to decrease by 21.5%, to 1.75 million tons.
In addition, Commerzbank said that some cocoa growing areas in Africa are affected by illegal gold mining, which further exacerbates concerns about a shortage in the market.
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| Industrial Raw Material Price List |
Crude oil up 16% in Q1
At the end of the week, WTI oil prices increased by 3.15% to 83.17 USD/barrel. Brent oil increased by 2.56% to 87 USD/barrel. After 3 consecutive months of price increases, crude oil has now reached its highest level in the past 5 months. At the same time, this commodity also achieved a price increase of 16% in the first quarter. According to MXV, this is considered the latest sign that the production restriction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC +) is restraining global supply.
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| Energy Price List |
The OPEC+ alliance has extended its supply cuts of about 2 million barrels per day until the end of June, reinforcing expectations that global inventories will shrink. Prices have also been supported by some geopolitical tensions and global demand growth over the past week.
In March, at least seven Russian oil refineries were attacked by drones from Ukraine, affecting about 12% of Russia’s total oil processing capacity. This made crude supplies more competitive, leading to strong buying in the market.
In the US, amid tight supplies, gasoline prices are forecast to rise to their highest level since the summer of 2022, to $4 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association AAA.
On the other hand, US economic growth shows continued positive signals, reducing the risk of recession, supporting the prospect of future oil consumption. Specifically, after two adjustments, official data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that US gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 3.4% compared to the previous quarter, higher than the figures published in the two previous preliminary reports.
Meanwhile, US crude oil production has also been on a downward trend, leaving a supply gap in the market. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil production fell in January to 12.5 million barrels per day, down 6% from a record high in December due to freezing weather disrupting drilling operations.
MXV said that this week, the market focus will be on the online meeting of OPEC+ Ministers taking place on the evening of April 3, Vietnam time, to review the group's production policy and discuss future plans.
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