Data from the General Statistics Office shows that the urban population has increased continuously in the period 2010 - 2022 while the population growth rate of rural areas has been negative or increased insignificantly for many years. In 2010, the urban population increased by 3.42%, while the rural population increased by 0.28%. In 2014, the urban population increased sharply by 4.88% while the rural population grew by negative 0.64%. In 2022, the urban population increased by 2.15% while the rural population increased by only 0.3%. Along with that, the population structure of urban areas increased from 30.4% in 2010 to 37.6% in 2022. These two developments are basically due to the construction and urbanization process (the birth rate in urban areas is not as high as in rural areas).
In addition, when using the Miyazawa-style economic demographic model, some notable observations can be drawn. That is, the final consumption of rural residents spills over to urban income more than the final consumption of urban residents spills over to rural income (0.093 compared to 0.079). Government consumption expenditure (recurrent expenditure) also basically spills over to urban income; this factor spills over to urban income 3.09 times more than to rural income.
Along with that, a unit of commodity export spreads to very little income, for both urban and rural areas. The spread of basic service exports to income in urban areas is recorded to be larger than in rural areas. The spread of commodity exports to urban areas is poor, because agricultural, forestry and fishery products have not been fully processed like products of the processing industry. This also means that the rate of deep processing of exported agricultural products is still quite poor.
Overall, the average spillover of a unit of final demand from rural areas to general income is higher than that of a unit of final demand from urban areas (0.236 versus 0.152). Most of the final demand from agriculture, forestry, fishery and agricultural product processing and manufacturing industries spillovers to rural income is higher than the average.
Generally speaking, the final consumption of rural areas is more spillover than that of urban areas. It not only causes spillover effects on their own production value, added value and income, but also creates quite strong spillover effects on the production value, added value and income of urban areas.
Thus, it can be seen that urbanization needs to be linked to the industry structure of the economy. Hopefully, this study can partly help managers consider options when planning development policies in general and economic policies in particular, so that the country can soon achieve inclusive prosperity.
Source
Comment (0)