Consumers shop at the supermarket. Photo: Tue Nghi
Q1/2024 growth highest since 2020
The General Statistics Office said that the estimated growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 5.66% over the same period last year, the highest level in the first quarter since 2020.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, Director of the National Accounts System, General Statistics Office, the GDP growth rate of 5.66% in the first quarter is quite consistent with the economic developments in the first 3 months of the year. In particular, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.98% due to the stable agricultural production activities, meeting the supply for domestic consumption, processing and export activities.
The industrial and construction sector achieved a growth rate of 6.28% thanks to the gradually active processing industry with guaranteed supply of imported raw materials and machinery and equipment; high electricity production ensures service for production, business services and consumption.
Notably, the main growth drivers of the economy are recovering more clearly. Industrial production continues to flourish, with the processing and manufacturing industry being the driving force behind the growth of the entire economy with a growth rate of 6.98%, contributing 1.73 percentage points.
Total social investment capital in the first quarter of 2024 at current prices is estimated at VND 613.9 trillion, up 5.2% over the same period, reflecting a recovery trend in domestic production and business in many industries and fields.
Of which, foreign direct investment capital implemented in Vietnam in the first quarter of 2024 is estimated at 4.63 billion USD, up 7.1% over the same period, reaching the highest level in the first quarter of the years from 2020 to present. "This increase is expected to create momentum for continued breakthroughs in the following quarters, supporting economic growth in 2024 in the context of the economy still facing many difficulties and challenges," said Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh.
In addition, the increase in import and export activities has also contributed positively to economic growth, in which export turnover increased by 17% and import increased by 13.9% over the same period. The trade balance in the first quarter maintained a surplus with a trade surplus of 8.1 billion USD, the highest in the past 5 years.
The service sector increased by 6.12%, in which some service activities were also quite vibrant, especially transportation and warehousing support services for export increased sharply; tourism activities had good growth in the first three months of 2024, in the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam welcomed about 4.6 million international visitors, an increase of 72% over the same period in 2023.
Retail sales of goods and service revenue increased by 8.2%, of which retail sales of goods increased by 7.0%, accommodation and food service revenue increased by 13.4%; tourism revenue increased by 46.3%; other service revenue increased by 9.5%. Thus, the growth of total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the first quarter of the year was due to the large contribution of accommodation, food service and tourism service industries to the overall growth.
2 growth scenarios
Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh said that although the growth in the first quarter of 2024 has not recovered to the same period in 2018 and 2019 (before the Covid-19 pandemic), this growth is the result of the efforts, close and timely management of policies by the Government, ministries, branches and the efforts and determination of localities, businesses and people on the path to economic recovery and development.
According to the operating scenario in Resolution 01/NQ-CP of the Government on key tasks and solutions to implement the Socio-Economic Development Plan and State budget estimates for 2024, the growth target for 2024 is from 6% to 6.5%.
In particular, the first quarter had growth rates of 5.2% and 5.6% respectively according to the two scenarios. Thus, looking at the overall economic picture, the first quarter growth result of 5.66% is close to the high scenario.
Based on the results of domestic economic activities and world economic developments in the first quarter of 2024, the General Statistics Office updated 2 growth scenarios according to Resolution 01/NQ-CP as follows:
Scenario 1: GDP growth for the whole year is 6%. Specifically, the first quarter increased by 5.66%; the last 9 months of the year increased by about 6.12%, of which the second quarter increased by about 5.85%; the third quarter increased by about 6.22%; the fourth quarter increased by about 6.28%.
Scenario 2: GDP growth for the whole year is 6.5%. Specifically, the first quarter increases by about 5.66%; the last 9 months of the year increase by about 6.75%, of which the second quarter increases by about 6.32%; the third quarter increases by about 6.79%; the fourth quarter increases by about 7.08%.
Regarding inflation, the General Statistics Office said that according to the law of consumption, people's demand decreased after the Lunar New Year, causing prices of essential goods and services in the market to decrease, causing the consumer price index in March 2024 to decrease by 0.23% compared to the previous month. In the first quarter of 2024, the CPI increased by 3.77% over the same period; core inflation increased by 2.81%.
Ms. Nguyen Thu Oanh, Director of Price Statistics Department, General Statistics Office, said that based on the domestic market situation in the first quarter of 2024, assessment of the world situation and analysis of factors affecting Vietnam's inflation in the coming time, the General Statistics Office has built 3 inflation scenarios for 2024 corresponding to average annual CPI of 3.8%; 4.2% and 4.5%, respectively.
Inflation scenarios are built through forecasting price fluctuations of groups of goods and services that greatly affect the consumer price index such as food, foodstuffs, electricity, gasoline, medical services, educational services, etc.
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