A new turning point in the race to the White House?

Alarming situation

On the afternoon of September 15 (local time), while playing golf, Republican candidate Donald Trump appeared to have become the target of an assassination attempt. According to the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the suspect named Ryan Routh was arrested. Investigators said the suspect was carrying an AK-47 rifle and was lurking in the bushes while Mr. Trump played golf in West Palm Beach, then was discovered by Secret Service agents and opened fire.

Suspect Ryan Routh during a previous arrest for a traffic violation. Photo: Reuters

So, in just two months, the United States has experienced two incidents, both targeting Republican candidate Donald Trump. This shows the alarming state of gun violence in the United States, especially ahead of elections. Americans have had to adjust to changes in the country's politics , which seem to have intensified over the past few years. The language has become more harsh, the partisan divide has deepened, and the standards of conduct for candidates have eroded.

Given the rampant gun violence across the United States, attacks like this may be an inevitable “new normal.” But for now, it’s still shocking. “Violence has no place in America,” Vice President Kamala Harris said in a statement after the Florida incident.

The details of the assassination attempt, especially the identity and motive of the attacker, will have political ramifications for the United States. But in his first statement since the golf incident, Trump vowed that nothing would slow him down or make him surrender. The response was consistent with a campaign in which Trump often argued that he had been targeted because he spoke for forgotten Americans. His words after his first assassination attempt in July—“fight, fight, fight”—have become a rallying cry for his supporters.

Impact of the assassination on the US presidential race

According to RBC, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) expert Alexey Naumov commented that the second assassination took place in the context of the Republican candidate's campaign slowing down. In the live debate between the two candidates on the night of September 10 (local time), Vice President Kamala Harris controlled the debate and continuously attacked Mr. Trump to expose his weaknesses for almost the entire 2 hours of the debate.

Harris’ performance can be considered a success for the Democratic Party as she has not lost on the front that is considered Mr. Trump’s “forte”. Besides, Mr. Trump has also been behind his opponent in most recent public opinion polls. In a study by The New York Times, former President Donald Trump is currently behind – he currently has 47% support compared to 49% for Ms. Harris.

Photo: Reuters

Donald Trump trails his opponent by three points in the ABC News poll, 45% to 48%. According to data on Polymarket (a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of world events), Trump has narrowed the gap to its minimum - 49% to 50%, although in late August the platform had Harris with a 4% advantage over Trump.

However, expert Alexey Naumov believes that this incident has little impact on the White House race. In fact, some media outlets, including The New York Post and The New York Times, have begun to spread the idea that the reports of the assassination have been exaggerated. The New York Post described the situation as a shooting by two people targeting each other, not Republican candidate Donald Trump. Many argue that the incident is being portrayed as an assassination because of the obvious benefits that the former White House leader can draw from such an explanation.

Clearly, this incident does not have the emotional weight of the shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July. That attack occurred at a public campaign rally, in front of television cameras, with the former president wounded and determined. This time, the incident occurred at a golf course that Mr. Trump owns, so he is in less danger.

According to experts, the assassination in Pennsylvania followed a successful televised debate between Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden and allowed Republicans to mobilize members of the party, some of whom even spoke of “divine intervention” that saved their candidate’s life (similar claims are still heard today). At the Republican convention, where Trump was formally nominated as the US presidential candidate, some delegates wore patches on their right ears as a sign of solidarity with him.

Now, the political landscape in the United States is different: Mr. Trump appears to have lost the televised debate to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, Mr. Biden’s replacement, and he trails her by an average of 2-3% in national polls. Moreover, according to research by Morning Consult, the Republican Party is in danger of losing Florida to the Democrats for the first time since 2012.

The two assassination attempts also differed greatly. In July, Trump was actually wounded, the rally was televised, and many saw him leave the stage, flanked by Secret Service agents, with his fist raised, calling on his supporters to “Fight!” This time, no one was injured, and American voters heard only the rather vague wording: “There was a shooting near former President Donald Trump.”

Expert Alexey Naumov commented that the assassination attempt would “provide additional ammunition for the Republican Party’s propagandists” but would have little impact on the party’s candidate ratings. According to Naumov, in the remaining weeks before the election, Donald Trump needs to fight Vice President Kamala Harris on the “territories” of the Democratic Party, putting forward specific and convincing political initiatives to attract support from American voters.

Ha Anh

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/ong-trump-bi-am-sat-hut-lan-hai-buoc-ngoat-moi-cho-cuoc-dua-vao-nha-trang-post312864.html