Politburo member and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh visits technology products on display at the Vietnam International Innovation Exhibition 2023 _Source: vietnamplus.vn
International context to 2030
The international context is often viewed through the lens of the regional and world situation. The situation is a panoramic picture at a certain time, a certain stage and includes the main elements: 1- Development trends of the balance of power and relations between major countries, major power centers; 2- Trends in relations, gathering of forces between countries; 3- Major trends, outstanding issues of security and development.
First, the development trend of the balance of power and relations between major countries and major power centers. Major countries and major power centers include countries and groups of countries that have a great influence on the development trend of the world. Of which, group one includes the US, China, Russia, and the European Union (EU); group two includes the UK, France, India, Japan, and Germany. Countries such as South Korea, Canada, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico are emerging countries and their influence is generally only at the regional level.
The strength of countries is often measured by: 1- Hard power: economic strength (gross domestic product - GDP), scientific and technological potential; defense strength (number of troops, defense spending, defense industry, alliance network, etc.); 2- Soft power (attractiveness of models, value systems; number of partners, position, influence in the world, etc.); 3- Smart power (ability to use various types of power to achieve national goals, correctness of policies and effectiveness of policy implementation, ability to adjust, respond to crises, etc.).
Regarding the world economic outlook, on March 27, 2023, the World Bank (WB) forecast that global economic growth in the 2022-2030 period will decrease to a three-decade low of 2.2% per year, from 2.6% in the 2011-2021 period and nearly 33% lower than the 3.5% in the 2000-2010 period (1). Some scholars predict that from now until 2030, China's economy will grow by about 5%, the US by about 2%, and by 2035 at the latest, China's economy will surpass the US economy. Many other forecasts suggest that around 2030, China will surpass the US in GDP (2) and account for about 1/4 of the world's GDP, but it will take a few more decades to catch up with the US in GDP per capita. At the same time, in the period of 2025 - 2027, India will surpass Japan and Germany to become the third largest economy in the world. Notably, according to forecasts from the WB, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), by 2030, the gap between the US, China and other major countries in terms of GDP will be very large. The GDP of the US and China will reach about 30 trillion USD, while the GDP of India, Japan and Germany will only be about 6 trillion USD to 9 trillion USD, about less than 1/3 of the GDP of the two leading countries.
In terms of military, in 2023, the US spent 916 billion USD and China 296 billion USD. According to some forecasts, China's military budget will increase by about 5 - 7% per year and will reach about 550 billion USD by 2030 (3), while US military spending will soon exceed 1,000 billion USD if it continues to increase at the current rate. The gap in military budget between the two leading countries, the US and China, compared to other major countries is much larger than the difference in GDP. By 2030, the forecast for military spending by India is about 183 billion USD, Russia is about 123 billion USD (4). In terms of military strength, this issue is difficult to compare because the actual strength, especially the level of eliteness, the level of efficiency in technology, engineering, tactics, strategy, etc., is only clearly demonstrated in war. However, if we consider the network of allies and the network of military bases as part of power, the US is said to be in a superior position compared to China, Russia and other major countries. Currently, the US has about 750 military bases in 80 countries (5). China has a military base in Djibouti and plans to build about 20 military bases in the African region, the Gulf and the South Pacific (6).
In terms of soft power, by 2030, the US is expected to remain the country that originates new ideas about development theory, and the US education system, especially higher education, is highly attractive. China is and will invest heavily in culture, education, research and development, but it is difficult to catch up with the US in this aspect. If soft power is measured by the level of attractiveness to the talent pool, the US has always attracted talent from all over the world, including developed countries in Europe and Japan. Immigrant talent has been and will be a high-quality source of additions to the US workforce, helping the US avoid the risk of population aging that China and all other major countries face from now until 2030. In addition, the existing multilateral institutional system can also be considered a plus for the US's soft power. In recent years, the multilateral system has been increasingly challenged but is still valued by most countries in the international community. The US still plays an important role in most global and regional multilateral mechanisms. China is and will continue to strive to reach out and have representation in multilateral organizations, but in the next few decades it will still be difficult to be on par with the US.
In terms of smart power, there is a view that the leadership model that concentrates power on General Secretary and President Xi Jinping of China and the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China greatly facilitates centralized direction, resource mobilization and quick decision-making, but may also bring risks from the lack of multi-dimensional perspectives, especially when key positions face problems with trust and health in the coming years. In contrast, the US “checks and balances” model does not allow for quick decision-making, but minimizes the risk of wrong decisions and if the current administration does not function effectively, it will be replaced by a new administration in an orderly manner four years later.
US President Joe Biden with General Secretary and President of China Xi Jinping in San Francisco (USA), November 15, 2023 _Source: getty images
Regarding relations between major powers, by 2030, the US-China relationship will still be the dominant pair, dominating other relationships. The US-Russia and EU-Russia relations will continue to be tense. On many issues, the world is divided into two lines, with the US and the West on one side and China and Russia on the other. Votes at the United Nations General Assembly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict show that, on issues related to the world order based on international law, most countries openly support the US and the West. This trend is expected to continue to increase as the current world and regional order is increasingly challenged. The US-China-Russia triangle is no longer clear because Russia's combined strength is showing some signs of decline (due to US and Western sanctions against Russia and the conflict in Ukraine). However, Russia still maintains a certain level of independence thanks to its economic self-reliance, its position as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and its possession of modern military technology along with a nuclear arsenal of 6,000 warheads.
There is still cooperation in the US-China relationship, but tension is the dominant trend. The US Congress and people consider China a “structural” rival. No matter which administration leads the US in 2025, the US policy towards China will basically be “cooperation when possible, competition when necessary, confrontation when forced” (7). The US will continue its trade and technology wars with China. The US goal by 2030 is to control China’s “rise”, prevent China from breaking the status quo in the region, and break the “rules of the game” established by the US and its allies. For its part, China is making efforts to adjust its development strategy, transform its growth model, reduce its dependence on the US, and invest heavily in technology development. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute once warned the US and the West that China is leading in 37/44 cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), 5G technology, while the US is only leading in a few areas, such as vaccine production, quantum computing and space launch systems (8). To control China, the US is implementing a comprehensive strategy of 5-4-3-2-1, including: intelligence coordination with the "Five Eyes" group (FVEY) (9); security coordination with the "Quad" group (QUAD); trilateral security cooperation between the US, UK and Australia (AUKUS); implementing measures to control bilateral relations with China and promoting the Indo-Pacific Strategy. At the same time, closely cooperating with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (China) to prevent China from developing advanced chips. In return, China has promoted its three strategies, including the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Community of a Common Destiny for Humanity, and the Global Security Initiative (GSI), gradually increasing its influence in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, South Asia, and the South Pacific; closely coordinating with Russia, Iran, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Mali, Uganda, etc.
Second, the trend of relations and the gathering of forces of small and medium-sized countries. When competition is tense, big countries, especially the US and China, will increase pressure and take advantage of small and medium-sized countries. In recent years, especially since Russia carried out its "special military operation" in Ukraine, the behavior of countries can be divided into three groups. The first group is countries that support the international order based on rules, are close to the West, and are not concerned about the impact of China and Russia. In this group, in addition to Western countries, there are about 60 countries in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America that voted to condemn Russia in the conflict in Ukraine, and did not support China on the East Sea issue at the Non-Aligned Movement Conferences. The second group includes countries that support China and Russia. In addition to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Syria, Belarus, and Nicaragua, which support Russia's annexation of Ukrainian provinces, this group includes a number of countries, such as Pakistan, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Mali, etc., that have always supported China on the East Sea issue at the Non-Aligned Movement Conferences. The third group is the countries that maintain a neutral stance, including 30-40 countries. It is likely that by 2030, small and medium-sized countries will still gather forces following this trend. Most of them avoid getting involved in the competition between major countries.
Third, major trends, outstanding issues in security and development. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industrial Revolution 4.0) is developing strongly, deeply affecting all aspects of human life. In international relations, the Industrial Revolution 4.0 increases the level of competition and racing between countries, increasing the division between rich and poor countries. Along with the geopolitical competition between the US and China; the US, the West - China, Russia, the Industrial Revolution 4.0 aggravates the trend of fragmentation, division, especially digital division between countries and groups of countries, causing long-term impacts on the world and regional situation.
Globalization continues with differences in speed, methods and fields from previous periods. The speed has slowed down due to conflicts between major countries, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the 4.0 Industrial Revolution, etc. Methods and fields related to global transportation and material movement have declined, giving way to non-material methods and fields. According to the 2021 forecast of Standard Charter Bank (UK), by 2030, global trade will increase by more than 70%, reaching over 30,000 billion USD (10). International investment may decrease compared to before and be restructured towards increasing the sustainability of global production and supply chains and focusing on green and digital fields (11).
The trend of democratization of international relations is being challenged more seriously by power politics and great power competition. However, the challenge will raise the common awareness of the importance of multilateralism, the multilateral system and multilateral diplomacy among the majority of countries. Small and medium-sized countries increasingly value the role of international law in protecting their national interests.
The sustainable development goals for 2030 are unlikely to be achieved due to the lack of political support and resource contributions from many countries, especially large and rich countries. However, green development will become a dominant trend due to the intrinsic needs of countries (in the face of climate change risks) and the imposition of developed countries, especially EU countries, through trade standards related to environmental protection (12).
Due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine and Hamas-Israel conflicts, the trend of armament will emerge in some areas; local conflicts will continue to occur in some places, between some countries, especially between big and small countries. However, peace, cooperation and development are still the dominant trends because humanity is still investing more in development; wars between big countries are less likely to occur, local conflicts are less likely to spread into major wars.
Non-traditional security issues, especially organized crime, maritime security, and cyber security, continue to receive attention and cooperation from countries, including major powers. Responding to climate change continues to be a prominent topic at international and regional multilateral forums. Most countries, especially small island states and countries in sub-Saharan Africa, consider this a security challenge. Major countries, especially China, Russia, and the United States, do not consider climate change a security challenge but are more interested in cooperation in response.
Fourth, the Asia-Pacific region, Southeast Asia, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The Asia-Pacific region continues to be the center of world growth. According to some forecasts, by 2030, the Asia-Pacific region - home to the world's three largest economies (China), third largest (India), and fourth largest (Japan) - will account for 52.5% of global GDP (13). This is also the region where strategic competition between the US and China takes place. If the situation continues as it is currently trending, countries in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to come under increasing pressure from US-China competition.
ASEAN continues to be viewed by its members as an effective means of coping with great power competition. ASEAN will unite on common issues related to both the US and China, but it will be difficult to have a common stance on issues related to one country (the US or China). These are internal challenges for ASEAN until 2030. However, overall, Southeast Asia will maintain a peaceful environment, economic growth and increased regional connectivity.
Opportunities and challenges for Vietnam in the next 5 - 10 years
The regional and world situation affects countries at different levels and in different fields. Even when war or pandemic occurs, it can be seen that many countries still find opportunities for development. From Vietnam's perspective, with the country's increasing position and strength, including a network of 30 strategic partners and comprehensive partners, Vietnam can completely maintain "warm inside, peaceful outside" against the impacts of the world and regional situation. In which, the necessary condition is self-reliance capacity with the ability to flexibly adjust, the ability to withstand external shocks and the ability to recover quickly after impacts. By maintaining "warm inside, peaceful outside", Vietnam has many opportunities to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), transform the growth model, digital transformation, green transformation, etc. to realize the goal of achieving the basic criteria of an industrialized country by 2030.
The challenges are predicted to be greater than in the previous period. Vietnam is accelerating industrialization and modernization in the context of a slowing world economy; a divided and fragmented world; and a slowdown in globalization compared to the previous period. This poses many issues for Vietnam to pay attention to.
First, will peace, cooperation and development continue to be the major trend? The international context in the next 10 years shows that this trend is and will face many challenges both in the short term and in the long term. However, peace and cooperation are still the dominant trend, therefore, if Vietnam maintains and effectively exploits the network system of 30 key partners, this will still be a major trend for Vietnam, contributing to helping Vietnam continue to successfully implement the viewpoint: "Socio-economic development is the central task; Party building is the key; cultural development is the spiritual foundation; ensuring national defense and security is essential and regular" (14).
Second, is globalization in general slowing down and will it slow down? If we look at globalization from the perspective of the trend of large corporations wanting to invest long-term in Vietnam, with the potential to realize the benefits from 17 free trade agreements (FTAs), Vietnam still gains many opportunities from globalization, continues to attract FDI, technology and increases trade, especially with 30 established strategic and comprehensive partners.
Third, the Industrial Revolution 4.0 poses three main challenges for Vietnam: 1- Vietnamese enterprises find it difficult to participate in the global production and supply chain due to low capacity and readiness; 2- Opportunities to attract FDI may decrease compared to before; 3- The Vietnamese workforce is affected by jobs being replaced by robots and the trend of shifting investment closer to the consumer market, and learning opportunities are reduced due to increasingly simplified work. However, the Industrial Revolution 4.0 also brings learning opportunities, increases new types of jobs, and opportunities to "catch up and catch up" for latecomers like Vietnam.
Fourth, on relations between major countries. In the next 5-10 years, major countries will still cooperate but compete, even confront, much more intensely than in the past 5-10 years, especially in issues related to geopolitics, security - military, science - technology... Regarding Russia, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US and Western countries imposed more than 18,069 new sanctions on Russian organizations and individuals, including Russian President Vladimir Putin (15). Regarding China, the policy of the US President Joe Biden's administration is "compete when necessary, cooperate when possible, confront when forced" (16). Both the Republican and Democratic Parties in the US agree to consider China a competitor. Meanwhile, Russian President V. Putin also imposed sanctions on US President J. Biden and most key leaders in the US administration and Congress (17). Similarly, at the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary and President of China Xi Jinping declared his opposition to hegemony and “is ready to face big waves, strong winds, and even dangerous storms” (18). From a challenging perspective, competition between major countries, especially between the US and China, has not only made it difficult for Vietnam to promote relations with each country, but also weakened the multilateral approach and multilateral organizations that Vietnam has been and is integrating into.
The world economy is forecast to be more difficult than the previous period. International trade and investment have been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and have been further negatively impacted by the Russia-Ukraine and Hamas-Israel conflicts. At the same time, global production and distribution chains have been disrupted, continue to be disrupted, and are increasingly difficult to recover. It is likely that major countries, especially the US and China, will adjust their relations, but the negative impacts from the Russia-Ukraine and Hamas-Israel conflicts on the world economy are expected to continue for many years to come. Therefore, Vietnam's integration goals to increase trade, attract FDI, and transform the growth model will also be affected.
Production line of smart, environmentally friendly sensor products of Hyundai Kefico Vietnam Co., Ltd. (Korean investment) at Dai An II Industrial Park, Hai Duong province _Source: vietnamplus.vn
Issues arising in mobilizing and effectively using resources to serve development goals by 2030
To realize the goal of achieving the basic criteria of an industrial country by 2030, Vietnam needs to pay attention to the following key tasks:
Firstly, promote the mobilization of technology from outside. Vietnam can mobilize technology through: 1- Exchanging and learning experiences in the process of working with foreign partners, taking advantage of the technology spillover effect from participating in production chains; 2- Purchasing technology from partners; 3- Transfer programs of the United Nations, multilateral organizations... For example, to make good use of the exchange channel, learning experiences in the process of working with foreign partners, comprehensive solutions are needed, including institutional development, human resources and infrastructure so that Vietnamese enterprises can quickly connect with FDI enterprises, participate in the production chains of FDI enterprises, especially leading technology corporations.
In the context of a fragmented world, leading technologically developed countries, such as the US, pursue the strategy of “on shoring” or “investing in US friends” (friend shoring), Vietnam needs to build strategic trust from partners, so that partners invest in high technology or sell high technology to Vietnam. However, to gain strategic trust from partners, Vietnam also needs many solutions from politics, foreign affairs to mechanisms to ensure and enhance capacity in necessary areas.
Second, effective use of resources. Currently, indicators of labor productivity, energy consumption to produce a unit of product, efficiency of capital investment, etc. in Vietnam are relatively low compared to ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines). This is a challenge but also a room for Vietnam to improve the efficiency of resource use. In the period 1960 - 1970, South Korea and Taiwan (China) were successful in international cooperation to improve the quality of human resources and the efficiency of human resource use for industrialization, as well as improving the efficiency of financial capital use for development. The way that South Korea and Taiwan (China) implemented was to focus on institutional reform, mobilizing high-quality human resources from outside into key stages of the institutional reform process. Institutional quality is the main reason for the difference between newly industrialized countries in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. By 2030, as Vietnam strives to promote three breakthroughs in institutions, infrastructure and human resources, institutions need to be given top priority.
Vietnam is entering a decisive phase - "taking off" to become an industrialized country. However, this is a difficult period for Vietnam as it comes at a time when the world is experiencing many unpredictable changes. However, Vietnam's current position and strength are different. With a creative development strategy, the ability to effectively use resources and a foreign relations foundation that has been developed over nearly 40 years of renovation, it is certain that Vietnam can completely "take off" spectacularly. The experience of East Asian countries shows that the will to be self-reliant, to effectively use resources, to perfect institutions and to develop science and technology are the "keys" to success./.
Associate Professor, Dr. DANG DINH QUY
Diplomatic Academy
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* The article is the research result of Project KX.04.08/21-25
(1) See: "Global Economy's" Speed Limited "set to fall to three-Decade loow" (roughly translated: "Speed limit" of the global economy can be reduced to the lowest level in three decades), The World Bank, dated 27-3-2023, https://www.Worldbank.org/en/News/press -REASE IT-Set-to-Fall-Te-Three-DECADE-LOW
(2) See: "Gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices in China and the United States from 2005 to 2020 with Forecasts Until 2035" (roughly translated: The gross domestic product at the current price in China and the US period in 2005-2020 and forecast to 2035), Statista, 2023, https://www.STATISTACOM SS-Domestic-Product-GDP-CHINA-US/
(3) See: "Countries with the Highest Military Spending Worldwide in 2022" (Translation: countries with the highest military spending in the world by 2022), Statista, 2023), Statista, 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistic/262742/counttries-highest-gee
(4) See: "Estimated Military Expenditure forecast at defense sector Purchasing Power Parity, Constant 2022 Prices (2030)" (roughly translated: Military expenditure is estimated at the purchasing power price of the defense sector, fixed price in 2022), Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023, 2022 Usee-Resources/Defence-Resources-2030/Military-Expenditure-Forecast-2030/
(5) Everett Bledsoe: "How many us military bases are there there E %kite%%20states%3F-, United%20states%20military%20bases%20worldwide, as%20AY
(6) See: "China is struggling to establince bases" (roughly translated: China struggles to build a military base), The Economic Times, dated 14-12-2021, https://economictimes.indimes.com ? Utm_source = Contentofinterest & utm_medium = text & utm_campaign = CPPST https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-is-struggling-to-establish-milside bases/articleshow/88268005.cmsms
(7) Cheng Li: "Biden's China Strategy: Coalition-Driven Competition or Cold War-Style Confrontation?" va-competition-or-block
(8) Daniel Hurst: "China Leading Us in Technology Race in All But a Few Fields, Thinktank Finds" (roughly translated: China leads the United States in the technology race in all fields, except for some fields), The Guardian, March 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/mar/mar/mar-qchin-qchy-qchy-ironing Ace-in-L-but-A-Few-Fews-ThinkTank-Finds
(9) Including: USA, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand
(10) "Future of Trade 2030: Trends and Markets to watch" (Marketing Future 2030: Trends and markets to be monitored), Standard Chartered, 2023, https://av.sc.com/corp-en/content/docs/future-OF-trade-2021.pdf
(11) James Zhan: "The Future of FDI: Drivers and Directions to 2030” (The future of foreign direct investment: motivation and orientation to 2030), FDI Intelligence, December 23-2020, https://www.fdiItellence.com/content/opinalion/the-fdure-fdine-Drivens-Drens-Drens-Drens-Drions 112
(12) For example, on April 19, 2023, the European Parliament (EP) passed the new law that banned the import of goods that were thought to be related to deforestation ...
(13) See: "Transform Your Investment Decisions with Better Data" (Transfer of investment decisions for better data), World Economics, 2023, https://www.wwoldececynics.com/worldkkkkkkkkormorrow/year-2030.au
(14) Document of the 13th National Congress, the National Political Publishing House, Hanoi, 2021, T.
(15) "Russia Sanctions Dashboard" (roughly translated: Overview of Russian sanctions), Castellum.ai, April 22, 2024, https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctions-dashboard
(16) Cheng Li: "Biden's China Strategy: Coalition-Driven Competition or Cold War-Style Confrontation?"
(17) Maegan Vazquez: "Russia Issues Sanctions Against Biden and A Long List of US Officials and Political Figures" (roughly issued sanctions on Bai-Don and a long list -Sanctions/index.html
(18) Huaxia: "Full text of the report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China" (All text reports of the XX Congress of the Chinese Communist Party), Xinhua, October 25, 2022, https://english.news.cn/20221025/8B6F5239F
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