Minister of Health proposes solutions to the risk of Vietnamese people 'getting old before getting rich'

Voters from Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Yen Bai, and Tien Giang provinces recently shared many concerns about population work in their petitions sent to the health sector.

The risk of falling into the state of "not rich yet old"

Voters in Yen Bai province cited experts' assessments that the "golden population" period will end, and our country will move into the aging population phase around 2038. If this advantage is not fully exploited, Vietnamese people are at risk of falling into the situation of "not yet rich but already old", especially when our country is considered to have a rapidly aging population.

Therefore, voters suggest that research and advice should be given to regulate the number of children each couple should have in accordance with the actual situation to ensure human resources for the long-term socio-economic development of the country.

In 2024, the proportion of Vietnam's population aged 65 and over will account for 9.3%. Photo: Hoang Ha

Vietnam's population will reach more than 101 million by 2024 and is among the 16 most populous countries in the world. However, Vietnam is also facing aging, which is inevitable for a country with both rapidly increasing life expectancy and a sharp decline in birth rates. Not only that, the aging rate in Vietnam is among the fastest in the world. Meanwhile, the population growth rate in our country has been continuously decreasing in recent years. The birth rate is currently only 1.91 children/woman.

In 2024, the country will have 14.2 million people aged 60 and over, an increase of 2.8 million people compared to 2019. The General Statistics Office forecasts that by 2030, this number will be approximately 18 million people. This shows that in the next 5 years, the number of elderly people will increase very rapidly compared to the previous 5 years (an increase of nearly 4 million people compared to 2024).

Currently, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over accounts for 9.3%. It is forecasted that by 2036 - 2038, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in our country will account for 14% of the population, which is also the time when Vietnam will enter the "aging population" phase.

In the next two decades, Vietnam's aging speed will be even stronger.

It takes high-income countries decades, even hundreds of years, to move from “aging” to “old,” but Vietnam only needs about 18-25 years. Professor Giang Thanh Long, a senior expert on population and development at the National Economics University, said that in the next two decades, Vietnam’s aging rate will be even faster.

The major challenge for our country is rapid aging in middle-income conditions. Since 2011, Vietnam has begun the process of population aging. Over the first 10 years of the aging period, the average income of Vietnamese people increased from 1,300 USD/person/year to about 4,700 USD/person/year (in 2024), escaping the group of low-middle-income countries. During that time, the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and over increased from more than 7% to 9.3%.

By 2036, this rate will increase to 14.2%, meaning that it will become an "aging society". Therefore, if Vietnamese income has not increased in time to become a high-income country (temporarily taking the level of 14,000 USD/person/year according to the World Bank's classification in 2024), the worry of "getting old before getting rich" is no longer a risk but may exist.

Vietnam is still in the period of “golden population structure” with one dependent for every two people of working age. However, the Ministry of Health predicts that if the birth rate continues to decline, by 2039 Vietnam will end this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, after 32 years.

To cope with population aging, the health sector is making efforts to address the low birth rate and take full advantage of the "golden population structure"... Compared to the 2039 milestone, Vietnam only has 14 years left to take advantage of all advantages to prepare resources for the aging population.

Responding to voters' petitions, Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan said that the Ministry of Health has completed the content of the Proposal for the development of the Population Law and submitted it to the Government. The draft Population Law focuses on the main contents of maintaining the replacement fertility rate nationwide, overcoming the disparity in fertility rates between regions and subjects to ensure a reasonable population size and adapt to the aging process.

Regarding the birth rate, it is expected that couples and individuals will be allowed to decide when to give birth, the number of children, and the interval between births. The Ministry of Health has proposed allowing female workers to extend their maternity leave from 6 months to 7 months when giving birth to a second child. The Politburo is also requesting that regulations be amended to not discipline party members who give birth to a third child or more.

The Ministry of Health is finalizing a report on receiving and explaining the opinions of Government members. The draft Population Law is expected to be considered by the Government at a special session on law-making in 2025. If approved, the draft law is expected to be submitted to the 15th National Assembly for comments at the 9th session in 2025 and approved at the 10th session in 2025.

Vietnamnet.vn

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/bo-truong-y-te-chia-se-ve-noi-lo-nguy-co-nguoi-viet-chua-giau-da-gia-2384414.html