The Ministry of Industry and Trade has proposed a scenario for developing exceptionally high power sources associated with double-digit growth in demand, increasing electricity imports from neighboring countries.
Deputy Minister Nguyen Hoang Long - Photo: C.DUNG
On February 17, the Ministry of Industry and Trade held a workshop on Adjusting the VIII Power Plan and Strategic Environmental Assessment.
Mr. Nguyen Hoang Long, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, said that the Power Development Plan 8 approved by the Prime Minister has many new points with dynamic and open features, aiming to achieve zero net emissions by 2050, ensuring sufficient electricity supply, serving economic development with growth targets.
Four scenarios for electricity growth
However, there are many new factors affecting electricity demand, power source development and grid. In particular, the development of the Ninh Thuan nuclear power project with 6,000 MW has a significant impact on the power source structure; the requirement for ensuring electricity supply, with the target by 2030 much higher than the previous target.
In which, GDP growth strives to reach over 8% and double-digit growth in 2026 - 2030, this growth requires electricity to grow 1.5 times, expected to average from 12% to over 16% annually.
Along with that, the world situation is still complicated with conflicts, strong development of science and technology, intellectual property, facilitating the integration of wind power, solar power, other power sources...
Therefore, Mr. Long said that it is necessary to thoroughly consider adjusting Power Plan 8, on the basis of widely consulting relevant units so that the plan is feasible and effective.
Forecasting electricity consumption demand, Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Hung, Institute of Energy, said that in the draft adjustment of Power Plan 8, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has proposed economic growth scenarios associated with electricity growth.
Including low scenario, base scenario, high scenario associated with growth rate up to 8-9% and extremely high scenario associated with double-digit growth rate in the coming period, closely following the Central's resolutions and policies.
Mr. Hung assessed that the forecast results in the low scenario reflect the reality of updated growth forecasts of international organizations when the economy still maintains a fairly good growth rate, meeting the needs of electricity supply and demand management in the short term.
With the baseline scenario showing high growth for GDP and commercial electricity, this forecast is considered to have the most solid legal basis, in compliance with the growth target in the National Master Plan.
For the forecast results in the high scenario, it reflects the electricity demand in the case of accelerated economic development in the 2026-2030 period, achieving a high "double-digit" GDP growth rate.
Huge investment volume requires careful calculation of electricity prices
The forecast results of the high scenario especially reflect the electricity demand in case the economy develops rapidly and maintains high “double-digit” growth for a long time. This scenario ensures reserves for long-term electricity development.
To meet the above target, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has launched a program to develop power sources and grids, as well as increase the import of electricity from Laos and China. According to calculations, the scale of Vietnam's power system must reach 210,000 MW by 2030 and increase to 840,000 MW by 2050. This level is 35% and 50% higher than the approved Power Plan VIII, respectively.
Therefore, along with the developed power sources, electricity import plays an important role in ensuring supply. Of which, Vietnam plans to import 3,700MW from China, an increase of 3,000MW compared to the previous plan; import electricity from Laos with an expected capacity of 6,800MW, nearly 1.6 times higher than the plan.
According to some experts, it is necessary to prepare power sources and grids to meet the high scenario. However, with this scenario, a more thorough assessment of the implementation method and feasibility is needed. Especially in the short term up to 2030, mobilizing domestic and foreign resources is not simple, so specific mechanisms and solutions are needed.
In addition, with a large investment source, the electricity price cannot be at 9.1 cents/kWhh. Therefore, it is necessary to have a financial assessment of the project based on financial indicators and investment sources that increase the electricity price. Because the average electricity price is 2,103 VND, equivalent to 8.3 cents/kWh, a large investment with an electricity price of more than 9.1 cents/kWh is considered a "miracle".
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/bo-cong-thuong-xay-dung-kich-ban-dac-biet-cao-ve-dien-tang-nhap-tu-lao-va-trung-quoc-20250217164602921.htm
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