Unexpected forecast of bank profits, some banks increase by 50%

MBS Securities Company has just forecast that the banking industry's profits in the first quarter of this year will grow by 15% compared to the same period last year thanks to credit acceleration since the beginning of the year.

Some banks with high profit growth in the first quarter include VPB with a 50% increase. VPB's credit growth is forecast to reach 4% at the end of the first quarter (1.9% in the same period last year), mainly driven by corporate credit.

Regarding the banking industry, according to MBS, credit has improved since the beginning of the year, helping banking industry profits to grow by about 15% compared to the same period last year.

The credit growth target for the entire banking sector this year is 16%. Major banks such as Vietcombank (VCB), MB (MBB), HDBank (HDB), VPBank (VPB), Techcombank (TCB) and VIB plan to increase credit growth by over 15%.

Many banks have good profit growth forecasts because of increased credit. (Photo: Nhu Y).

In addition, non-interest income is also differentiated, with state-owned banks having more positive prospects thanks to service fees from corporate customers.

SSI Research has just released estimates of the first quarter business results of many banks: Sacombank, VietinBank, VPBank, HDBank, BIDV, MB, ACB, MSB, TPBank, Techcombank, Vietcombank, VIB, OCB...

Of which, the highest profit growth belongs to Sacombank with an increase of 51% compared to the same period, followed by VietinBank (up 42%) and VPBank (up 32%). However, compared to the previous quarter, Techcombank is the bank with the highest growth (up 77%), HDBank (up 18%), VIB and Vietcombank (up 3-4%).

VCBS Securities Company has just forecast the first quarter business results of many banks. The analysis team forecasts ACB bank's first quarter profit to reach VND5,137 billion, up 5% over the same period last year. Pre-tax profit for the whole year of 2025 is forecast to reach VND23,308 billion, up 11%.

VietinBank's pre-tax profit in the first quarter is forecast to increase by 20% year-on-year to VND7,422 billion. Revenue in the first quarter is VND22,880 billion. The analysis team also expects VietinBank's full-year profit to reach VND37,767 billion, up 19% compared to 2024.

VCBS expects HDBank's pre-tax profit in the first quarter to reach VND4,632 billion, up 15% year-on-year. HDBank has higher credit growth prospects thanks to the transfer of Dong A Bank.

MB's profit is forecast to reach VND7,064 billion, up 22% over the same period. Pre-tax profit this year could reach VND35,808 billion, up 23%...

According to economist Dinh Trong Thinh, bank profits in the first quarter increased because credit increased right from the beginning of the year. According to a report by the State Bank, as of March 12, credit increased by 1.24% compared to the end of 2024.

In the context of the State Bank's request to "hold back" interest rates, Mr. Thinh said that banks are facing difficulties due to many factors that are putting pressure on interest rates. In 2024, deposit interest rates reached a record low, but if they continue to remain at this level, banks will have difficulty attracting capital.

In addition, the economic growth target for 2025 is set at 8%, which means that businesses' demand for loans will increase, forcing banks to prepare lending resources. In addition, rising inflation expectations also require deposit interest rates to increase to ensure positive real yields. Strong exchange rate fluctuations also affect interest rates, making it difficult to maintain deposit interest rates.

This expert commented that the increase in deposit interest rates will inevitably lead to an increase in lending interest rates, becoming a major challenge for the banking system this year. The problem is how to maintain low interest rates to support the economy, while ensuring sufficient capital mobilization to meet credit demand, realizing the 16% credit growth target set by the State Bank.

(Source: Tien Phong)

Link: https://tienphong.vn/bat-ngo-du-bao-loi-nhuan-ngan-hang-co-nha-bang-tang-50-post1729300.tpo

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