What will happen to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and what level of support Washington will provide to Kiev if Donald Trump is re-elected are questions being asked as the US election approaches.
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| The possibility of former US President Donald Trump's re-election will greatly affect the future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Source: Getty) |
As the US presidential election in November approaches, the question of what the country's policy toward Ukraine would be if Republican candidate Donald Trump were to return to the White House is increasingly of interest.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly stated that if he wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will quickly find a way to end the conflict in Ukraine. This is also considered a top priority in the billionaire's election campaign.
After meeting with Mr. Trump on July 11, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban noted that the former US President had detailed and solid plans to immediately play a role in mediating peace in Ukraine and would not wait until after his inauguration to do so if he was re-elected.
On April 23, US Senator Vance said that Washington's refusal to support Kiev would increase the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the conflict that meets US interests. He said the resources and funds allocated to the Eastern European country could be better used to support domestic initiatives or compete with China.
Trump’s approach to the conflict in Ukraine would likely contrast with President Joe Biden’s approach of maintaining and increasing support to help the country better defend itself against Russia. The ultimate goal of Biden’s strategy is to increase Kiev’s leverage over Moscow in peace and ceasefire negotiations, while also reducing new tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which would allow the United States to allocate more resources to long-term power competition with China.
If Mr. Trump is re-elected as US president, in addition to the willingness of other key players such as Russia, Ukraine, European countries and China to accept risks, the development of the conflict in Ukraine will depend largely on whether the new US administration believes that acting to support Kiev, from a security, political and economic perspective, carries more risks than not acting.
There are four main scenarios for the possible impact of a Trump 2.0 administration on the conflict in Ukraine:
Ceasefire talks collapse, US reduces support but Ukraine continues to fight (likely)
Under this scenario, Trump 2.0 would reduce financial and military support, forcing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. At the same time, Trump could engage in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the conflict.
Most likely, Washington will act first to help Kiev gain an upper hand in negotiations, possibly by easing restrictions on arms supplies to Ukraine and their use to attack Russian territory.
However, the talks eventually collapsed as one or both sides believed they would have the upper hand in future negotiations. Ukraine continued to push for more territory to be regained.
Meanwhile, Russia remains determined to continue its special military campaign in Ukraine and seeks to limit Western support for Kiev, including freezing its chances of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), assuming that the Eastern European country does not receive further support from the United States or stronger security guarantees from the military alliance.
If neither side is willing to compromise on key demands, the ceasefire talks will collapse without an agreement. As a result, the White House and the US Congress will either reject further aid packages to Ukraine, or slow down and scale back new aid, withholding financial support as well as critical weapons and ammunition systems.
Ceasefire talks collapse, but US continues support to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position and security (possible)
In this scenario, ceasefire talks also collapse, but the US decides to maintain or even increase significant military assistance to Ukraine for fear that stopping aid will seriously weaken Kiev's capabilities, thereby leading to a prolonged conflict and posing a greater threat to NATO countries.
The decision was also driven in part by US concerns that cutting aid to Ukraine could cast doubt on the world's largest economy's resolve to defend its global allies, impacting its competition with China.
Washington's continued support assures Kiev that an eventual end to the conflict will come with stronger security assistance from the West and bridge the gap for years until Ukraine joins NATO.
Ceasefire negotiations successful but risk of conflict reoccurrence still looms (possible)
Under this scenario, the US threat to cut aid would force Ukraine to the negotiating table, with Russia signaling concessions in exchange for restrictions on US support for Ukraine, including an informal but indefinite freeze on Kiev’s NATO membership aspirations.
The ceasefire negotiations were successful, however, as the US and the West stopped providing weapons to Ukraine, internal political infighting will become increasingly evident within and between NATO member states.
On the other hand, the ceasefire allows Russia to consolidate the areas it controls in Ukraine and prepare for a renewed conflict depending on new developments.
Ukraine toughens its attacks on Russian territory, risks serious escalation and Russia-NATO conflict (unlikely)
In this scenario, Ukraine miscalculates and assumes that both the risk of reduced US support and the risk of failure at the negotiating table exist. As a result, Kiev becomes increasingly assertive in the conflict, in part to attract stronger support from the West, even if this risks escalating tit-for-tat actions from Moscow.
This worst-case scenario could lead to an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and, more broadly, the risk of a Russia-NATO conflict, either due to a deliberate escalation or an accidental spread of the conflict.
Another risk is the possibility that Kiev violates Western restrictions on the use of its weapons in Russia and launches attacks on energy facilities and other infrastructure, drawing strong responses from Moscow.
However, this scenario is unlikely to materialize because Ukraine is unlikely to make a miscalculation because Western powers, especially under the Trump administration, have always been reluctant to engage in direct conflict with Russia. Therefore, it is likely that the US will decisively reduce support for Ukraine if a Russia-NATO conflict is imminent.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/4-kich-ban-cua-xung-dot-nga-ukraine-neu-cuu-tong-thong-my-donald-trump-tai-dac-cu-283646.html
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