3 economic growth scenarios for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2023

Reporting at the regular Government meeting in September 2023 and the Government's online conference with localities (morning of September 30), Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that the economy is gradually regaining growth momentum, with each quarter growing faster than the previous quarter, and each month being more positive than the previous month.

Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung reports at the regular Government meeting in September 2023. Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

The economy is gradually regaining growth momentum.

The world situation in September and the first nine months continued to face many difficulties and challenges, including slow economic recovery, low growth, reduced consumer demand, and high public debt. These issues have posed more and more challenges and risks to developing countries.

Domestically, the economy continues to recover, achieving important and quite comprehensive results in all fields. However, completing the set socio-economic development goals and tasks is becoming increasingly difficult, especially in the face of the "double impact" of unfavorable external factors and internal limitations and challenges.

"The socio-economic situation in September and the first nine months continued to recover positively. Although the results achieved for many important indicators and targets were not as expected, they have changed more positively each month and each quarter," Minister Nguyen Chi Dung affirmed.

Specifically, the economic growth rate recovered positively. GDP in the third quarter is estimated to increase by 5.33% over the same period last year (the first quarter increased by 3.28%, the second quarter increased by 4.05%) in the context of many economies continuing to have low growth. The macro economy continues to be stable, inflation is controlled, and major balances are ensured.

Besides, CPI in September increased by 3.66% over the same period last year, the average increase in 9 months was 3.16%.

In addition to the achieved results, Minister Nguyen Chi Dung commented that the difficulties and challenges are still great, depending largely on global trends and contexts, so it is difficult to change quickly in the short term; creating risks and pressure on growth management, macroeconomic stability,...

Therefore, based on the results of the first 9 months and forecasts of the world and domestic situation in the coming time, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has updated the growth scenario for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2023.

Scenario 1: Economic growth for the whole year is about 5%, the fourth quarter needs to increase by 7% (the fourth quarter of 2022 increases by 5.92%).

Scenario 2: Economic growth for the whole year is about 5.5%, the fourth quarter needs to increase by 8.8%.

Scenario 3: Economic growth for the whole year is about 6%, the fourth quarter needs to increase by 10.6%.

"The scenarios are all very difficult and challenging, requiring the initiative, efforts and determination of all levels, sectors and localities to implement solutions and policies to strongly promote growth, effectively promote all resources, and make the most of opportunities from both outside and inside the economy to strive for the highest growth results in the fourth quarter, especially creating momentum for 2024 and the following years," the Minister emphasized.

Core solution

Also at the regular Government meeting in September, the Ministry of Planning and Investment advised and proposed key tasks and solutions from now until the end of the year.

Firstly, carefully prepare and organize the implementation of work, ensure the progress and quality of the contents serving the 8th Central Conference and the 6th session of the National Assembly; continue to quickly and effectively implement the policies of the Party Central Committee, the Politburo, the Laws and Resolutions passed by the National Assembly at the 5th session.

Second, focus on organizing and implementing drastically, comprehensively and synchronously from all levels, sectors and localities the solutions and policies that have been issued to support and remove difficulties for production and business, sectors and fields, promote economic growth, especially policies on taxes, fees, currency, trade and investment.

Third, focus on promoting the domestic market. In particular, support businesses to effectively exploit the domestic market, taking advantage of opportunities to boost consumption of goods at the end of the year and the Lunar New Year in 2024.

Fourth, take full advantage of opportunities and recovery trends of markets to boost exports. Accordingly, promptly provide market information, support businesses to quickly and promptly respond to new standards of export partner countries, boost exports of key product groups, take advantage of export opportunities from signed FTAs, accelerate signed negotiations...

Fifth, mobilize and effectively use domestic and foreign resources for development investment.

Laodong.vn