The former British army commander said that Ukraine is at "serious risk" of collapsing and suffering defeat in the face of Russia's advance in many directions.
Ukraine has not yet reached such a point, but the country's army is seriously depleted of ammunition, soldiers and air defense systems. Ukraine's large-scale counteroffensive last year failed in its goal of pushing Russian forces from places they controlled.
The Russian army is preparing for an offensive operation in the summer. Mr. Barrons identified the shape of this campaign quite clearly. “We are seeing Russian forces dominate the front lines, taking advantage of their 5-to-1 advantage in artillery, ammunition and abundant manpower, while increasingly using new weapons,” he said.
Ukrainian soldiers in the area near Bakhmut on March 6. Image: Reuters
Among Russia's new weapons are FAB glide bombs of all sizes, which are conventional Soviet-era bombs equipped with guidance wings and a navigation system. FAB bomb models can weigh 250 kg to 1,5 tons and are destroying Ukraine's defense system.
“Sometime in the summer, we will see a large-scale Russian offensive aimed at more than small attacks to penetrate Ukrainian lines,” Mr. Barrons predicted. “Russian forces can break through and invade areas where Ukraine cannot stop them.”
Last year, Russia knew exactly where Ukraine was capable of counterattacking, including the tip from Zaporizhzhia south to the Azov coast. They planned their defense accordingly and successfully stopped Ukraine's advance. The current situation is completely different, when Ukraine cannot predict where Russia will attack next.
“One of the challenges Ukraine faces is that Russia can choose where to deploy its forces,” said Jack Watling, an expert on land warfare at the British Royal Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI). . “The front line is very long and Ukraine must defend it all.”
However, due to lack of forces, Ukraine cannot deploy troops across the front line. Mr. Watling predicted that Ukraine will lose more territory in Russia's next attack. “The question is how much and which municipalities will be affected,” he said.
The Russian Army General Staff may not have determined the main direction of advance. Experts say Kharkov, the northeastern province of Ukraine, is definitely a key target that Russia is aiming for.
Russian-Ukrainian war front. Graphics: WP
Russia recently raided Kharkov every day. Ukraine's air defense in Kharkov is not capable of preventing coordinated attack tactics between unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), cruise missiles and ballistic missiles targeting here.
“In my opinion, this year's Russian offensive campaign will target targets outside the Donbass region. They will keep an eye on the big target of Kharkov city, the capital of the province of the same name, located about 29 km from the border," Mr. Barrons predicted.
Ukraine can still survive if Kharkiv falls, but this will be a catastrophic blow to the country's morale and economy, British experts warn.
Fighting in the Donbass region, including Donetsk and Lugansk provinces, has been going on since 2014 when pro-Russian separatists seized power there. Russia in October 10 annexed Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson into its territory.
The Donbas region is where most of the ground fighting has taken place over the past 18 months. The most controversial thing is that Ukraine spent large resources to entrench itself in Bakhmut and Avdeevka, two cities that they later let fall into Russian hands. The fall of these two cities caused Ukraine to lose a significant number of soldiers with the best combat capabilities.
Ukraine announced that the defensive operation at Bakhmut and Avdeevka caused high casualties for Russian forces. However, Russia has more troops to continue the campaign, while Ukraine does not.
General Christopher Cavoli, head of the US military's European Command, warned on April 10 that unless the country transfers more weapons and ammunition, Ukraine will be overwhelmed by Russian firepower up to 4 times on the battlefield.
Ukrainian soldiers on the road near the city of Chasov Yar on March 25. Image: AFP
According to British experts, the Russian army's tactics, leadership and equipment may be inferior to Ukraine's, but they have superiority in numbers and especially artillery. This advantage is so great that if Russia has no other goals, its default option is to continue pushing Ukraine westward and take control village by village.
The city of Zaporizhzhia is another major target for Russia, where 700.000 people lived before the war and is located near the front line. Zaporizhzhia is the capital of the province of the same name that Russia annexed, but Ukraine still controls the city.
The formidable defense system that Russia has built south of the city of Zaporizhzhia could further complicate its advance in this direction, British experts say. Russia could partially lift the defense line, but this could expose its preparations.
However, Russia's strategic goal this year may not be to control more territory, but simply to break Ukraine's fighting spirit and convince the West that the country is doomed to defeat.
“Russia's goal is to try to create a sense of hopelessness,” Mr. Watling said. “This Russian attack will not completely end the conflict, regardless of the situation on both sides.”
General Barrons also doubted Russia's ability to take advantage to strike a decisive blow while Ukraine faces a dire situation.
“The most likely outcome is that Russia will achieve many benefits but no breakthrough,” Mr. Barrons said. "They do not have a force large enough and good enough to fight all the way to the banks of the Dnieper River, but the direction of the war will benefit Russia."
Nguyễn Tiến (Follow BBC, AFP, Reuters)
